# Federal Reserve’s Cook sees disinflation potential, warns of risks from tariffs, AI spending, and geopolitical conflict > Source: > Published: 2026-07-15 17:54:29+00:00 # Federal Reserve’s Cook sees disinflation potential, warns of risks from tariffs, AI spending, and geopolitical conflict The Fed governor signaled willingness to raise interest rates if inflation doesn't cool, a stance with serious implications for crypto and risk assets Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook laid out an economic outlook on July 15 that amounts to a conditional optimism: disinflation could happen, but a lot of things need to go right first. And if they don’t, she’s ready to hike rates. ## The inflation picture is stubborn The 12-month PCE inflation rate was near 3.7% in June 2026. The Fed’s target, as always, is 2%. That’s not a small gap. It’s nearly double the goal, and it’s persisting despite the Federal Open Market Committee holding the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% as of its June meeting. Core goods prices have been climbing at a 5% annual pace since the start of the year. Cook pointed to prior tariffs as one source of price pressure, suggesting their effects may be fading, which could open a path toward disinflation. Cook flagged several forces that could keep inflation elevated. Continuing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the situation involving Iran, threatens oil price stability. ## AI spending as an inflation driver Over $1.5 trillion has been pledged for AI-related data center plans. All of that spending creates supply pressures: demand for energy, construction materials, specialized chips, land, and labor. In a previous speech on May 27, Cook discussed AI’s dual nature as both an economic opportunity and a risk factor, and notably referenced digital assets in that context. ## A stable economy with an unstable price level The unemployment rate in June stood at 4.2%, which signals a stable labor market. GDP growth hit 2.0% in 2025 and is projected to reach 2.2% in 2026. Cook emphasized that inflation expectations remain anchored only so long as the public believes the Fed is ready to intervene decisively. She indicated a willingness to raise interest rates if disinflation doesn’t materialize promptly. This echoes comments she made on May 27, confirming that this isn’t a one-off hawkish remark but a consistent posture. ## What this means for crypto investors The current rate of 3.50%-3.75% is already elevated by historical standards. A further increase would tighten financial conditions at a time when risk assets, including Bitcoin, have been trading on the assumption that the next move would be a cut, not a hike. The most important signal from Cook’s remarks is the conditionality. She’s not saying a rate hike is imminent. She’s saying it’s on the table if inflation doesn’t cooperate. If the next few readings don’t show meaningful progress toward 2%, the probability of a rate increase will climb. **Disclosure:** This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our [Editorial Policy](https://cryptobriefing.com/editorial-policy/).