# Estimating Fable and Sol model sizes > Source: > Published: 2026-08-02 20:44:26+00:00 How big are the frontier models? I tried to answer this question using a statistical model of intelligence indices, a No-CoT reasoning benchmark, API prices, compute trends, and a poll of 20 AI researchers and engineers. Here are the results: - The motivation is simple: people speculate on this topic endlessly, but I've yet to see a proper attempt that is grounded in evidence. Intelligence indices offer a good starting point, however they measure RL as much as the base model. I decided to take the Gould et al. No-CoT - glad I could contribute to the survey! # Join the conversation