{"slug": "estimating-fable-and-sol-model-sizes", "title": "Estimating Fable and Sol model sizes", "summary": "A statistical analysis by an independent researcher estimates the parameter counts of Fable and Sol, two frontier AI models, using intelligence indices, a No-CoT reasoning benchmark, API prices, compute trends, and a poll of 20 AI researchers and engineers, finding that Fable likely has around 1.2 trillion parameters and Sol around 400 billion, though the estimates carry wide uncertainty due to limited public data.", "body_md": "How big are the frontier models?\nI tried to answer this question using a statistical model of intelligence indices, a No-CoT reasoning benchmark, API prices, compute trends, and a poll of 20 AI researchers and engineers. Here are the results:\n\n- The motivation is simple: people speculate on this topic endlessly, but I've yet to see a proper attempt that is grounded in evidence. Intelligence indices offer a good starting point, however they measure RL as much as the base model. I decided to take the Gould et al. No-CoT\n- glad I could contribute to the survey!\n# Join the conversation", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/estimating-fable-and-sol-model-sizes", "canonical_source": "https://twitter.com/anpaure/status/2083993647268405602", "published_at": "2026-08-02 20:44:26+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-02 20:52:32.768126+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-research", "large-language-models"], "entities": ["Fable", "Sol", "Gould et al."], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/estimating-fable-and-sol-model-sizes", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/estimating-fable-and-sol-model-sizes.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/estimating-fable-and-sol-model-sizes.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/estimating-fable-and-sol-model-sizes.jsonld"}}