{"slug": "elon-musk-has-a-crazy-prediction-about-ai-in-two-years", "title": "Elon Musk has a crazy prediction about AI in two years", "summary": "Elon Musk predicts that artificial intelligence will be unrecognizably advanced within two years, citing the rapid pace of progress from 2023 to 2026 as evidence. Musk, CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, made the statement on X (formerly Twitter) on July 30, 2026, responding to a post highlighting AI's evolution.", "body_md": "[Elon Musk](https://www.teslarati.com/category/elon-musk/)\n\n# Elon Musk has a crazy prediction about AI in two years\n\nElon Musk is, in many respects, one of the biggest and most influential figures in modern-day artificial intelligence.\n\nGiven that [Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI](https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-following-tesla-footsteps-way-nobody-expected/) are all looked at in their respective fields as leaders to an extent, each of them has a heavy influence on the future of AI, even though two of them are not thought of, at face value, as AI companies.\n\nMusk has grand expectations for what is to come with AI, not only as a form of assistance to make human lives easier, but to make humans multiplanetary and solve some of the biggest issues that face us today. But even he is astounded by AI’s pace of progress.\n\nHe believes that in two years, AI will be so mind-blowing it might be unrecognizable.\n\nGiven that AI from 2 years ago feels so old that it should be in a museum, then obviously AI 2 years from now will be mind-blowing\n\n[https://t.co/TcsKZ8o8OE]— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)\n\n[July 30, 2026]\n\nThis progress can be seen in a variety of ways, but perhaps the most popular way people have shown AI’s progress, especially on social media, is through an incredibly arbitrary way of watching Will Smith eat spaghetti:\n\nThe progression in AI of Will Smith eating spaghetti (2023 – 2026)\n\n[pic.twitter.com/VDv82mB5gs]— internet hall of fame (@InternetH0F)\n\n[February 10, 2026]\n\nThis is a great way to show people how AI is improving, especially from a perspective that examines how it can manufacture images and video from prompts. AI is an incredibly complex concept, however, and it goes much deeper than Will Smith eating Italian food.\n\nMusk’s most widely adopted method of AI is [likely Tesla Full Self-Driving, which impacts millions of people](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-full-self-driving-v14-3-6-review-rare-regression-bright-spots/) as they utilize it to increase safety with their travel. Musk has routinely pushed incredibly aggressive timelines for self-driving, especially unsupervised.\n\nPerhaps this perspective is why he feels that things will be solved in a timeframe that is much more aggressive than most of us would think. Regardless, the progress of AI is moving fast, and it seems that Musk’s expectations for it could be high.\n\nBut if it can actually achieve full-length motion pictures and even more realistic production value, it will be hard to distinguish between reality and AI very soon.\n\nJoey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019.\nIn his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions.\nYou can get in touch with joey at [joey@teslarati.com](mailto:joey@teslarati.com). He is also on X [@KlenderJoey](https://x.com/klenderjoey).\nIf you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out [shop.teslarati.com](https://shop.teslarati.com/)\n\n[Elon Musk](https://www.teslarati.com/category/elon-musk/)\n\n# SpaceX scores another massive Pentagon deal to support military satellites\n\nSpaceX just picked up another $1.6 billion from the Pentagon, with the U.S. Space Force awarding [two task orders worth $1.6 billion](https://www.ssc.spaceforce.mil/Newsroom/Article-Display/Article/4559276/space-force-awards-task-orders-to-launch-space-based-sensing-and-targeting-capa) to fly 18 Falcon 9 missions from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California through the end of 2027. The launches will carry satellites for the Space Based Sensing and Targeting portfolio, a set of programs meant to help the military detect and track airborne threats and relay that information across forces in near real time.\n\nThe award falls under National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1, the Space Force’s faster, commercial style procurement track for missions that do not require the military’s most demanding certification process. It is also the largest single order publicly disclosed under that program so far, and the first task order issued since the Space Force nearly tripled Lane 1’s contract ceiling from $5.6 billion to $17 billion on July 17.\n\n[SpaceX to become America’s Military data backbone for missiles, drones, and warfighters]\n\nEric Zarybnisky, the Space Force’s acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access, said the entire process, from identifying the requirement to signing the contract, took about two months, including a month set aside for companies to prepare proposals.\n\nSpaceX is not just launching these satellites. It already holds the contracts to build two of the programs within the same portfolio, $4.16 billion for the Space Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator system and $2.29 billion for the Space Data Network Backbone, [which Teslarati covered in May](https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-to-become-americas-military-data-backbone-for-missiles-drones-and-warfighters/). That means SpaceX is now responsible for both building key pieces of the military’s next generation sensing network and getting them into orbit.\n\nWith this latest award, SpaceX’s Pentagon contract total for 2026 alone tops $8 billion, adding to a defense portfolio that already includes the [Golden Dome missile defense](https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-golden-dome-missle-defense/) software group SpaceX joined in April and a string of GPS launches it inherited after ULA’s Vulcan rocket ran into a booster anomaly, [which we detailed in March](https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-space-force-contract-awarded-over-ula/).\n\nLane 1’s vendor pool technically includes seven companies: SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Stoke Space, Impulse Space, and Relativity Space. In practice, SpaceX remains the only provider with the combination of launch cadence, flight proven Falcon 9 hardware, and West Coast infrastructure to support a campaign requiring roughly one Vandenberg launch a month for the next year and a half.\n\nSome lawmakers have flagged the growing concentration of national security launches with one company as a risk worth watching. For now, the Space Force keeps backing SpaceX, with it being the company that shows up ready to launch.\n\n[Elon Musk](https://www.teslarati.com/category/elon-musk/)\n\n# Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch\n\nElon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.\n\nSpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.\n\nThe launch was [overwhelmingly successful](https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-spcx-absolutely-crazy-price-target-rough-ipo/). SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.\n\n[SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before]\n\nNevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.\n\n#### Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean\n\nMusk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to [recover Starship after splashdown](https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-reveals-spacex-performed-secret-starship-test-flight-13/) in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.\n\nWe’re sending a ship out to recover Starship\n\n[https://t.co/fUqUZTITO9]— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)\n\n[July 28, 2026]\n\nThis helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.\n\n#### Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims\n\nMusk has already indicated that [SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship](https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-catch-starship-launch-14-elon-musk/) with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.\n\nThe ship landing was precise, meaning that it would have been caught by the tower arms\n\n[https://t.co/6nbNrRfX9P]— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)\n\n[July 29, 2026]\n\nA ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.\n\nIt is a necessity to [make life multiplanetary](https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-updates-spacex-timeline-for-mars/).\n\n[Elon Musk](https://www.teslarati.com/category/elon-musk/)\n\n# Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars\n\nElon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.\n\nThe objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, [and not by impact](https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-v3-launch-date/).\n\nMusk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”\n\nPeople on Mars in roughly 5 to 7 years.\n\nMars lander a few years sooner.\n\n— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)\n\n[July 29, 2026]\n\nThe response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”\n\nOf course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.\n\nMusk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time [timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty](https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-self-sustaining-mars-city-plausible-25-30-years/), especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.\n\nIn fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.\n\nThe point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the [Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars](https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-spacex-moon-city-before-mars/), it is still worth mentioning that the [ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary](https://www.teslarati.com/nasa-contract-spacex-falcon-heavy-mars-rover/), and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/elon-musk-has-a-crazy-prediction-about-ai-in-two-years", "canonical_source": "https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-crazy-prediction-ai-two-years/", "published_at": "2026-07-30 17:06:31+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-30 17:55:38.567899+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-policy"], "entities": ["Elon Musk", "Tesla", "SpaceX", "xAI", "X"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/elon-musk-has-a-crazy-prediction-about-ai-in-two-years", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/elon-musk-has-a-crazy-prediction-about-ai-in-two-years.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/elon-musk-has-a-crazy-prediction-about-ai-in-two-years.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/elon-musk-has-a-crazy-prediction-about-ai-in-two-years.jsonld"}}