Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI

Anthropic researchers Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory published a framework modeling AI's economic effects between 2026 and 2030, with three scenarios: modest, substantial, and extreme. In the extreme scenario, AI performs almost half of today's cognitive work by 2030, GDP growth rises to 15 percent per year, the labor share of income falls from 60 to 45 percent, and nearly one in five cognitive workers is unemployed; in the modest scenario, AI adds less than half a point to GDP growth by 2030 and raises unemployment by a tenth of a point. A survey of US adults found the median respondent's expectations align with the substantial scenario, in which GDP rises 8 percent and cognitive employment declines 4 percent by 2030.

Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI By Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory, a strong line-up from Anthropic. They are sober, reasoned, scientific, and for the most part dynamically consistent. Here is the paper https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/files/4zrzovbb/website/cf58f84d46a4a76bf5a5b039ac695fba6b80041c.pdf , here is the abstract: This paper presents a framework for assessing the economic consequences of AI between 2026 and 2030. In the model, AI automates a growing share of cognitive work, raising productivity and displacing workers who must search for jobs in other occupations. The model maps future paths of AI capabilities into implied paths for GDP, the labor share, wages, labor reallocation, and unemployment. We illustrate the framework by considering three scenarios: modest, substantial, and extreme. Under modest change, AI adds less than half a point to GDP growth by 2030 and raises unemployment by a tenth of a point. In the extreme change scenario, AI has transformative effects, with AI performing almost half of today’s cognitive work by 2030. GDP growth then rises to 15 percent per year, the labor share of income falls from 60 to 45 percent, and nearly one in five cognitive workers is unemployed. We also surveyed US adults about their expectations for AI. Views vary widely, but the median respondent’s answers are consistent with our substantial change scenario in which, by 2030, GDP rises by 8 percent and cognitive employment declines by 4 percent. The model offers a structured way to compare possibilities for our economic future under different expectations about AI. Here is the associated thread https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2097679796687769689 . I will opt for something a modest bit more than modest. And here is a good growth discussion from Alex Imas https://aleximas.substack.com/p/will-ai-soon-lead-to-double-digit .