'Dr. Doom' Predicts AI Will Force Universal Basic Income Within 25 Years as Millions of Jobs Disappear

Economist Nouriel Roubini, known as 'Dr. Doom' for predicting the 2008 financial crash, said in a July 17 interview that artificial intelligence and robots will replace a large share of the workforce within 20 to 25 years, forcing governments to adopt universal basic income. Roubini forecast global economic output could reach 10% by 2050, allowing taxation of AI winners to fund the transfers, and cited OpenAI's reported discussion of giving governments a 5% stake as a potential model.

'Dr. Doom' Predicts AI Will Force Universal Basic Income Within 25 Years as Millions of Jobs Disappear Roubini sees AI-driven growth boosting global output to 10% by 2050, allowing governments to tax the winners and benefit everyone Nouriel Roubini, the economist nicknamed 'Dr Doom' for predicting the 2008 financial crash, says artificial intelligence and robots will replace a large share of the workforce within 20 to 25 years, and that governments will eventually have to pay citizens a universal basic income. He made the forecast in an interview on 17 July. Asked how policymakers might shore up Social Security, whose main trust fund is projected to run dry by 2032, he said raising the retirement age would not be enough to offset the jobs automation is set to erase. 'Eventually, we need some form of universal basic income for everybody while they work and once they retire,' he said, before adding, 'We're already on the way.' In Roubini's account, machines will push people out of paid work faster than wages, savings or state benefits can adjust, leaving direct cash transfers as the only realistic backstop. Why 'Dr Doom' Sees Universal Basic Income as Inevitable Roubini set out two routes for sharing the wealth he expects AI to create. It could be handed out after the event through a universal basic income, which he called 'ex-post' support. Or it could be arranged in advance, 'ex-ante', through what he termed 'some form of socialism' in which the state takes ownership stakes in the largest technology companies. The groundwork is already being laid, he suggested, citing a media report that OpenAI had discussed giving governments a 5% stake so the public could share in the profits of advanced AI. For the model to work broadly, he said, rival developers would need to offer comparable stakes, which none has agreed to do. Roubini insisted the forecast was optimistic rather than gloomy. It assumes machines do most of the work while economic output surges. He expects global growth to climb from between 2% and 4% by the end of the decade to 6% by 2040, and 10% by 2050. At that pace, he argued, governments could tax the winners and still leave everyone better off. He tied the scenario to artificial general intelligence, the point at which AI matches or exceeds human reasoning, which he called the most important technological change in history. The UK Is Already Weighing Universal Basic Income For British readers, the debate is closer to home than Roubini's American framing suggests. Investment minister Lord Jason Stockwood said this year that ministers were 'definitely' discussing a universal basic income for workers displaced by automation, alongside retraining schemes. He called the coming transition 'bumpy' and said industries that vanish would need 'some sort of concessionary arrangement.' The strain is already visible in the data. Research by the investment bank Morgan Stanley found British firms reported a net 8% fall in jobs over the past year as they adopted AI, the steepest drop among major economies including the United States, Germany, Japan, and Australia. Unemployment in the UK stands at a five-year high, according to the Office for National Statistics. London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan has warned that AI could usher in mass unemployment, telling an audience at Mansion House the country must not 'drift' into a future it did not choose. The wider debate is split. OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman championed guaranteed payments before cooling on the idea, while Tesla's Elon Musk has predicted that within two decades paid work will become optional https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/elon-musk-ai-prediction-abundance-1810844 as robots take over routine tasks. Critics counter that a basic income large enough to replace a salary would cost far more than existing welfare. They also point to trials, including a two-year Finnish experiment, that lifted recipients' wellbeing but did little to change whether they found work. None of it is government policy yet, in Britain or the United States, and Roubini's timeline runs across decades. He framed the payments not as charity but as the mechanism for spreading the wealth he believes AI will create. © Copyright IBTimes 2025. All rights reserved.