Don’t hold your breath for AI agreements or arms control

Artificial intelligence rose to prominence last week as a candidate for international cooperation after prominent officials and experts warned that the risk of catastrophic damage from AI is nontrivial, according to an analysis of great power competition. The analysis notes that the United States, China, and Japan all acknowledge an era of intensifying geopolitical competition, but argues such rivalry should not block cooperation on crucial issues, as the U.S. and Soviet Union cooperated on arms control and nonproliferation during the Cold War. The analysis cautions that the list of issues superseding narrow national interest tends to be somewhat arbitrary, with weapons of mass destruction still on it and climate change getting there.

Ours is an era of great power competition. The United States acknowledges as much in its official national security documents; China concedes that is the tenor of the times but insists that the U.S. is responsible for this state of affairs. Japan’s National Security Strategy simply has repeated references to “intensifying geopolitical competition.” That competition should not — must not — block cooperation on crucial issues. Even during the height of the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union worked together to reduce the threat posed by nuclear weapons, signing arms control agreements and cooperating with other nations to block the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The “crucial issues” that supersede narrow calculations of national interest tend to be somewhat arbitrary. WMD still makes the list. Climate change is getting there. Last week, artificial intelligence rose to prominence following warnings by prominent officials and experts that the risk of catastrophic damage from AI was nontrivial.