Difference-in-Differences on a Censored Rating Scale Can Manufacture an Effect

A pre-registered audit of a frozen pedagogy judge, sealed before its 990 calls, found that difference-in-differences on a censored rating scale can manufacture an effect, with the registered primary endpoint null at +0.085 points (95% BCa [-0.167, +0.353], p = 0.684) and the one nominally significant interaction of +0.378 (p = 0.002) not identified as preference, as a construction with zero differential preference reproduces 79 to 85% of it from the severity shift and scale floor alone.

Computer Science Computation and Language Submitted on 27 Aug 2026 Title:Difference-in-Differences on a Censored Rating Scale Can Manufacture an Effect: Evidence from a Pre-Registered LLM-Judge Audit View PDF /pdf/2608.27309 HTML experimental https://arxiv.org/html/2608.27309v1 Abstract:Audits of LLM judges certify a bias by contrasting matched conditions, and the strongest designs difference twice: a within-item contrast between two candidate responses, differenced again across a manipulated attribute, read off a bounded rating scale. We show that this endpoint is not identified on the scale that reports it. Each term of the double difference is censored by its own share, so the observed statistic confounds differential preference with differential attenuation: a severity shift common to both responses manufactures an interaction whenever the two censor it unequally, as unequal distances from the bounds make them, exactly where good stimuli place them. We exhibit the failure inside a pre-registered audit of a frozen pedagogy judge, sealed before the first of its 990 calls. The registered primary endpoint, the effect of a stated learner profile on the judge's scaffolding preference, is null: $+0.085$ points 95\% BCa $ -0.167, +0.353 $, $p = 0.684$ . The audit's one nominally significant interaction, $+0.378$ $p = 0.002$ , is not identified as preference: a construction containing zero differential preference reproduces 79 to 85\% of it from the observed severity shift and the scale floor alone. We derive the mechanism in closed form and show that its contribution is measurable from an audit's own ratings. Current browse context: cs.CL References & Citations Loading... Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer What is the Explorer? https://info.arxiv.org/labs/showcase.html arxiv-bibliographic-explorer Connected Papers What is Connected Papers? https://www.connectedpapers.com/about Litmaps What is Litmaps? https://www.litmaps.co/ scite Smart Citations What are Smart Citations? https://www.scite.ai/ Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv What is alphaXiv? https://alphaxiv.org/ CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers What is CatalyzeX? https://www.catalyzex.com DagsHub What is DagsHub? https://dagshub.com/ Gotit.pub What is GotitPub? http://gotit.pub/faq Hugging Face What is Huggingface? https://huggingface.co/huggingface ScienceCast What is ScienceCast? https://sciencecast.org/welcome Demos Recommenders and Search Tools Influence Flower What are Influence Flowers? https://influencemap.cmlab.dev/ CORE Recommender What is CORE? https://core.ac.uk/services/recommender arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs https://info.arxiv.org/labs/index.html .