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Two governments’ lines around Chinese AI came into view this week, from opposite sides. As I read them, Washington’s line follows where a model came from, and Beijing’s asks for registration before a model leaves. The buyers kept moving anyway. One overseas company committed to a $200 million floor for tokens served from China, while Zhipu’s Tmall store showed about 300 token units sold since it opened in September.
Washington’s DeepSeek order reaches third-party products.
A Homeland Security order tells US federal civilian agencies to remove DeepSeek products from their IT. It also covers “third-party products and services developed using DeepSeek implementations.” The order is dated July 24 and was filed with the Federal Register on October 19. Its risk summary says “DeepSeek servers are located in the PRC.” I see a data-flow risk written up as an origin rule, one that could reach DeepSeek models running on American servers.
In June I wrote: “The Chinese origin of the weights describes where they were developed. It does not, by itself, describe a live data connection.” Chinese AI Models Are Winning the Cost Layer is open to all readers until Tuesday, October 27, noon Beijing time.
Beijing’s export registry has two names, and a date to watch.
Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, says that since the policy was published, DeepSeek and Shanghai AI lab MiniMax have completed the registration procedures and completed open-source release and licensed overseas use. The post names no model. Moonshot AI, the Beijing lab behind Kimi, said on October 23 that the full weights of its new K3.1 Pro will be released by November 4. Its launch post does not mention export registration.
My October 19 piece ended on two checks. The second was a disclosed registration at the next open release of a model in the usage top 10. This week answered half of it. November 4 may answer the rest, if K3.1 Pro ranks in that usage top 10.
A Nanning computing firm signed a $200 million token floor.
Wuxiang Cloud Valley, a wholly owned unit of Shenzhen-listed Runjian, has signed a one-year contract to sell AI token services across the border to an overseas company. 36Kr reported the filing, dated October 19. The buyer’s token spending for the year may not fall below $200 million. If usage comes in lower, it pays the difference. The filing withholds the buyer’s name, citing an internal confidentiality procedure, and does not give the per-token price. I read a floor in a contract as saying more about committed demand than a usage ranking does.
My February piece on Token Export argued that China can export AI as tokens, with the compute staying at home.
Shanghai AI lab MiniMax cut its prices before its exam.
MiniMax cut API prices with its new M3.1 Flash model. Input and output prices are each more than 50% below M3’s, The Paper, a Shanghai news site, reported. MiniMax says a Pro version will follow soon. On the morning of October 22, its shares traded below the HK$165 IPO price, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down more than 4% at the same time. One morning of trading says little about a price cut.
My August piece called M3 Pro “the exam.” I treat the coming Pro as that exam. The price cuts arrived first.
Tokens went on Singles’ Day shelves. One store page shows about 300 units since September.
Beijing AI lab Zhipu’s Tmall flagship store shows about 300 units sold in total across all token products since the store opened in early September, Yicai, a Shanghai financial outlet, reported. Tmall’s president said the platform will not put specific discounts into the category for now.
When Tmall opened its token shelf in September, I wrote on X that “the weaker link may have been the channel.” I gave the channel too much weight. My June piece on China’s carriers putting AI on the phone bill asked whether consumers would buy tokens. A store shelf has not answered that yet.
THIS WEEK
- [A Top-10 Test for China’s AI Exports](https://hellochinatech.com/p/china-ai-export-catalogue) : Which Chinese models Beijing’s draft list could reach depends on which ranking it uses.
- [BYD and the Captive Ceiling](https://hellochinatech.com/p/byd-battery-market-share) : Why BYD lost the most battery share in China among the top 15.
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China’s Robot Makers Fund Their Own Supply Chain : Startups preparing to list are investing in their suppliers. Their fund filings show three different numbers.
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China’s Payment Push Reaches CATL : How a Beijing-backed payment code shows up in CATL’s third-quarter cash flow. Next week I publish my analysis of how Pony.ai pays for its robotaxi fleet. Partner-funded fleets are growing, yet Pony.ai is still spending more of its own capital.
The cost-layer piece closes Tuesday, October 27. Paid readers keep it, along with about 250 other analyses, and get my reports at $49 instead of $99.
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