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Decentralized Causal Discovery using Judo Calculus

A new framework for decentralized causal discovery using judo calculus, formally defined as j-stable causal inference with j-do-calculus in a topos of sheaves, achieves improved computational efficiency and performance over classical methods on synthetic and real-world datasets from biology and economics, according to a paper on arXiv (2510.23942v2). The approach formalizes context-dependent causal effects as local truth across regimes, using the Lawvere-Tierney modal operator j to select relevant regimes.

read1 min views1 publishedJul 28, 2026

arXiv:2510.23942v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We describe a theory and implementation of an intuitionistic decentralized framework for causal discovery using judo calculus, which is formally defined as j-stable causal inference using j-do-calculus in a topos of sheaves. In real-world applications -- from biology to medicine and social science -- causal effects depend on regime (age, country, dose, genotype, or lab protocol). Our proposed judo calculus formalizes this context dependence formally as local truth: a causal claim is proven true on a cover of regimes, not everywhere at once. The Lawvere-Tierney modal operator j chooses which regimes are relevant; j-stability means the claim holds constructively and consistently across that family. We describe an algorithmic and implementation framework for judo calculus, combining it with standard score-based, constraint-based, and gradient-based causal discovery methods. We describe experimental results on a range of domains, from synthetic to real-world datasets from biology and economics. Our experimental results show the computational efficiency gained by the decentralized nature of sheaf-theoretic causal discovery, as well as improved performance over classical causal discovery methods.

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