{"slug": "damodaran-warns-about-s-p-inclusion-fight-over-spacex-and-openai", "title": "Damodaran Warns About S&P Inclusion Fight Over SpaceX and OpenAI", "summary": "NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran warned that fast-tracking SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic into the S&P 500 overlooks their financial losses and founder-controlled governance, posing risks for passive investors. S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed on June 4, 2026 that it will retain its one-year seasoning rule and profitability requirement, blocking near-term inclusion for SpaceX, which debuted on Nasdaq on June 12 at a valuation above $1.8 trillion, and for OpenAI and Anthropic once they list. Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that fast-track inclusion would have generated $14 billion in forced passive demand for SpaceX alone.", "body_md": "# Damodaran Warns About S&P Inclusion Fight Over SpaceX and OpenAI\n\nNYU Stern professor **Aswath Damodaran** warned in a Substack post on Jun 18, 2026 that pressure to fast-track **SpaceX**, **OpenAI**, and **Anthropic** into the **S&P 500** overlooks the financial and governance realities of these newly listed companies (Damodaran Substack; Economic Times). Damodaran argued that even a year after listing, these firms are likely to remain loss-making, with evolving business models and founder-controlled governance structures that raise real risks for passive investors (Damodaran Substack; Economic Times). **S&P Dow Jones Indices** had already confirmed on Jun 4, 2026 that it would retain its one-year seasoning rule and four-quarter GAAP profitability requirement, blocking near-term index inclusion for **SpaceX** - which debuted on Nasdaq on **Jun 12, 2026** at a valuation above $1.8 trillion - and for **OpenAI** and **Anthropic** once they list (Motley Fool; MLQ News). Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that fast-track inclusion would have generated $14 billion in forced passive demand for SpaceX alone, $8 billion for OpenAI, and $4.6 billion for Anthropic (MLQ News).\n\n### What Damodaran argued\n\nAswath Damodaran published a Substack post on Jun 18, 2026 addressing whether SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic should be fast-tracked into the S&P 500 after their public listings (Damodaran Substack; Economic Times). He argued that even a year after going public, these companies are likely to remain loss-making, with business models still in development and governance structures that concentrate control heavily in single founders -- making the case for caution on accelerated index inclusion (Damodaran Substack; Economic Times).\n\n### S&P Dow Jones Indices rule decision\n\nS&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed on Jun 4, 2026 that it would retain all three contested eligibility requirements: a 12-month seasoning period after IPO, four consecutive quarters of positive GAAP earnings, and a minimum 10% public float (Motley Fool; MLQ News). The decision directly affects SpaceX, which debuted on Nasdaq on Jun 12, 2026 at a market cap above $1.8 trillion (CNBC), making it ineligible for inclusion until at least mid-2027. OpenAI, targeting a Q4 2026 listing, and Anthropic, targeting an October 2026 IPO, face the same constraints once listed (Motley Fool).\n\n### Financial and governance realities\n\nDamodaran had previously estimated SpaceX's intrinsic value at $1.25-$1.3 trillion -- well below its market pricing above $1.8 trillion at IPO (Damodaran Substack, Jun 4). The company reported a net loss of approximately $5 billion in 2025 on revenue of $18.67 billion, with losses driven by heavy R&D and capital spending across its AI, launch, and connectivity businesses (Damodaran Substack). SpaceX's dual-class share structure gives Elon Musk all Class B shares carrying ten votes each, granting him control of more than 85% of voting rights -- a governance concentration Damodaran has cited as a legitimate reason for caution (Damodaran Substack). Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic is currently profitable.\n\n### Why index timing matters for practitioners\n\nWhen a large company joins the S&P 500, the roughly $7.5 trillion in passive assets benchmarked to the index must buy its shares, generating forced demand that can amplify price moves and shift sector weights for broad-market ETFs. Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that fast-track inclusion would have triggered $14 billion in passive buying for SpaceX, over $8 billion for OpenAI, and $4.6 billion for Anthropic (MLQ News). That demand has been deferred by at least 12 months post-IPO for each company, removing a near-term price catalyst. For portfolio managers and quant teams, the concrete implication is delayed rebalancing needs, deferred factor exposure changes, and no passive-flow tailwind in the near term.\n\n### What to watch\n\nMonitor updates from S&P Dow Jones Indices on any eligibility guidance, particularly whether compute-leasing revenue qualifies under profitability rules. Track the first four quarters of GAAP results from SpaceX after its Jun 12, 2026 debut to gauge when index eligibility becomes realistic.\n\n## Scoring Rationale\n\nDamodaran's Substack analysis of S&P 500 inclusion timing is relevant to quant finance and asset management practitioners but is primarily commentary on an index rule decision already finalized Jun 4, 2026. The deferred passive demand figures ($14B for SpaceX alone) are actionable context for portfolio managers, but the story is opinion-plus-context rather than new market-moving news, placing it solidly in the mid-tier range.\n\nPractice interview problems based on real data\n\n1,500+ SQL & Python problems across 15 industry datasets — the exact type of data you work with.\n\n[Try 250 free problems](/problems)", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/damodaran-warns-about-s-p-inclusion-fight-over-spacex-and-openai", "canonical_source": "https://letsdatascience.com/news/damodaran-warns-about-sp-inclusion-fight-over-spacex-and-ope-f46699d9", "published_at": "2026-06-19 08:01:52.704360+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-19 08:01:55.273166+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["ai-research", "ai-policy", "ai-startups", "ai-ethics"], "entities": ["Aswath Damodaran", "SpaceX", "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "S&P 500", "S&P Dow Jones Indices", "Bloomberg Intelligence", "Elon Musk"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/damodaran-warns-about-s-p-inclusion-fight-over-spacex-and-openai", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/damodaran-warns-about-s-p-inclusion-fight-over-spacex-and-openai.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/damodaran-warns-about-s-p-inclusion-fight-over-spacex-and-openai.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/damodaran-warns-about-s-p-inclusion-fight-over-spacex-and-openai.jsonld"}}