I just realized Claude Tag might be the AGI moment I've been talking about since 2023.
No, that doesn't mean Claude generally is pure, technical "AGI". It's hard to even know what that means. Everyone disagrees.
My definition of AGI, which is what I think we actually care about, is just:
An AI system that can replace an average knowledge worker.
The whole point of all this stuff is the impact it has on us humans, which is why I think this is the best definition.
In November 2023 I wrote Why We'll Have AGI by 2025-2028, and the prediction was specific: My prediction is a 60% chance of AGI in 2025 and a 90% of AGI in 2028.November 2023
That post also had the definition I still use:
An AI system capable of replacing a knowledge worker making the average salary in the United States.
The argument for how we'd get there was systems, not components. We wouldn't need one magic model to be AGI by itself. A system of AIs working together toward a shared goal would get there first.
Then in March I wrote We Are Confusing Two Types of AGI, which split AGI into Hard AGI (the academic, Computer Science version) and Soft AGI: An AI system implemented as a Product/OSS Project that emulates learning generality well enough to replace knowledge workers.
And that post made another specific call:
I believe we'll see one or more commercial products in 2026 or 2027 that do this.March 2026
I even described how that product would behave. It onboards like a regular human. It does orientation. It takes instruction from the manager. It interacts with the team. It works. It ships results.
That's the shape Claude Tag just showed up in. You install it into Slack, where knowledge work already lives, and you treat it like a coworker.
Here's how Anthropic's docs describe it: Anyone in a channel can tag Claude into a problem and hand it work: reproduce a bug and open a pull request, turn a decision thread into a doc, assemble the state of a project.Claude Tag documentation
That's a job description.
Here it is picking up a Sentry alert, reproducing the bug, opening the PR, and asking the code owner for review:
Here it is doing the boring recurring work, a Monday pipeline digest pulled from Salesforce on a schedule:
And in the webinar, Anthropic literally tells you to manage it like a person. Their words: "Brief it like a capable new hire: set the goal, let it own the process, verify the result."
At install you wire it into your repos, your docs, your data warehouse, your monitoring, and your ticketing. It runs in a sandbox hosted by Anthropic, and it works out of the channels your team already uses.
That's onboarding. That's what you do with an employee.
I think this is like a GPT-4 moment, but for worker replacement.
Think of it this way. All these companies have been trying to "replace" workers with AI, but they have no idea how to do that. They don't know what the work is. They can't give specific instructions to AI. AI doesn't have enough tools. The whole thing is not scaffolded well enough and integrated well enough with their work to actually be able to do it.
I think this is the first moment via this product where it's so deeply integrated, and all you have to do is have regular conversations with it like a co-worker.
It's actually doing all the Claude Code stuff that we're all so impressed with. It's doing that all on the backend by itself, so it's literally like you're talking to a co-worker.
That's the part that is actually going to make laying off like half the workforce possible.
Basically, up until now, what replacing people with AI meant was giving that work to somebody else who was really good with AI.
Now you're not giving it to another person who has Claude Code, who's like one of us and a total ninja with AI. Now you're actually just handing it to a co-worker, in this case Claude.
Anyway.
After reading all the Claude Tag docs, and watching a full Anthropic webinar on the project, I think this might be it.
The tangible thing I was waiting for was an actual PRODUCT being dropped that can replace a human worker.
Not like general tech. Most people can't use Claude Code. But something that you literally install and you can then treat it like a knowledge worker.
I think Claude Tag might be it.
I'm like 85% sure.
Meaning, I'm 85% sure we just hit what I believe to be the best definition of AGI.