Chinese AI improves forecasts as Hong Kong braces for super typhoons

Chinese researchers developed an AI model that improves typhoon rapid intensification forecasts, deployed at Hong Kong Observatory and National Meteorological Centre. The machine learning system addresses a key challenge in meteorology, helping Hong Kong brace for super typhoons this season.

Chinese AI improves forecasts as Hong Kong braces for super typhoons A new model deployed at Hong Kong Observatory and National Meteorological Centre uses machine learning algorithms to boost forecast accuracy Coco Feng /author/coco-feng in Guangdong Hong Kong Observatory https://www.scmp.com/topics/hong-kong-observatory?module=inline&pgtype=article and mainland China’s National Meteorological Centre can solve one of the toughest challenges in weather forecasting: predicting when a typhoon will rapidly intensify. Typhoon Jangmi https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3355856/typhoon-jangmi-churns-along-japans-pacific-coast-leaves-dozens-hurt?module=inline&pgtype=article ”. cancel or reschedule flights to Japan https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3355802/more-hong-kong-airlines-cancel-flights-typhoon-jangmi-bears-down-tokyo?module=inline&pgtype=article . The observatory has predicted that Hong Kong will experience four to seven typhoons between now and October, and has warned that some could become super typhoons due to the El Nino phenomenon. Forecasting rapid intensification, when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds increase by 15 metres per second 49.2 feet per second within a 24-hour period, or by 10m/s within 12 hours, has been one of the toughest challenges in meteorology. “Rapid intensification rarely happens, and is highly unpredictable, making preventive measures and responses extremely likely to be delayed,” Li said in a statement issued by SIAT last week. SIAT is affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Traditional numerical weather prediction technology could not accurately reflect the evolution of typhoon intensity, she said, while the statistical-dynamic method failed to capture the non-linear characteristics of typhoon intensity changes.