Challenges of Explainability in Continual Learning for Time Series Forecasting

A new study from arXiv (2607.19382v1) finds that explainability methods such as attention rollout and Grad-CAM can reveal how continual learning models adapt to non-stationary time series, but also expose challenges in interpreting evolving attribution patterns. The research, which tested PatchMixer, PatchTST, and DLinear architectures with Experience Replay on real-world piezometric data, shows that analyzing attribution patterns over time can inform data selection and adaptation strategies for environmental monitoring.

arXiv:2607.19382v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep learning models have shown strong potential for time series forecasting, yet their deployment in real-world environmental monitoring remains challenging due to non-stationary dynamics and limited explainability. In this work, we investigate explainability as a central tool for understanding continual learning in adaptive time series forecasting, with Experience Replay strategies. We study neural forecasting architectures such as PatchMixer, PatchTST and DLinear, augmented with attention-based sampling mechanisms to support model adaptation over time. Explainability is leveraged through attention rollout and gradient-based attribution methods Grad-CAM to analyze both predictive behavior and sampling strategies within a continual learning framework. Experiments conducted on real-world piezometric time series exhibiting heterogeneous patterns and regime shifts show that analyzing model and sampling behaviors provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the continual learning framework. Beyond predictive performance, our results highlight the challenges and opportunities of using explainability to understand continual learning behaviors, revealing how attribution patterns evolve over time and how they can inform data selection and adaptation strategies in non-stationary forecasting scenarios.