arXiv:2610.19021v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent work has questioned whether large language models (LLMs) can be useful for temporal event prediction. Despite vast pretrained world knowledge, LLMs often underperform simpler specialized models. We ask whether this knowledge is truly inaccessible, or whether current methods fail to present event prediction in a form LLMs can use. We argue for the latter and show that LLMs become effective event forecasters when the interface is designed around two choices. The first grounds each event in a natural-language description, and the second separates event semantics from the prediction space to prevent semantic bias from label associations. To test this, we introduce DescribeEvent, a benchmark of ~150K events across seven datasets and six domains with event-level descriptions. We find that capable LLMs substantially benefit from descriptions and symbolic labels, outperforming description-free variants and non-LLM baselines, while weaker models gain little. These results suggest that accessing LLM world knowledge for event prediction is an interface problem, and that event descriptions offer a practical way to elicit the knowledge LLMs already encode.
Can LLMs Access their World Knowledge for Event Prediction?
A new arXiv paper (2610.19021v1) argues that large language models underperform at temporal event prediction because of interface design, not missing world knowledge, and introduces DescribeEvent, a benchmark of roughly 150,000 events spanning seven datasets and six domains with event-level natural-language descriptions. The authors report that capable LLMs substantially outperform description-free variants and non-LLM baselines when each event is grounded in a description and event semantics are separated from the prediction space to avoid semantic bias from label associations, while weaker models gain little. The results frame access to LLM world knowledge for event prediction as an interface problem that event descriptions can solve.
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