BIS Warns AI Capex Risk Could Hit Bitcoin First

The Bank for International Settlements warned that a $1 trillion AI capital expenditure boom by hyperscalers could trigger a financial bust if returns disappoint, with Bitcoin acting as a fast-reacting risk-off signal due to its tight correlation with tech equities.

The Bank for International Settlements' June 28 Annual Economic Report is the clearest institutional signal yet that AI infrastructure spending is now a systemic financial-stability variable -- not just a sector bet. For AI and data practitioners, the key read: the five largest hyperscalers are on track to spend more than $1 trillion on AI capital expenditure across 2025-2026 BIS , and the central bank for central banks warns that 'Disappointment in returns could trigger a sudden pullback in financing and turn the capex boom into a protracted investment bust, with potential knock-on effects on financial conditions' BIS via CryptoSlate/CNBC . The BIS also flags circular financing structures -- hyperscalers taking equity stakes in AI labs that then commit to buying chips and compute -- as an amplifier of downside risk. Bitwise's market note documents Bitcoin's tight correlation with US software and hyperscaler equities, framing crypto as a fast-reacting risk-off signal for the broader AI trade.