# BIS Warns AI Capex Risk Could Hit Bitcoin First > Source: > Published: 2026-06-29 15:10:21+00:00 The Bank for International Settlements' June 28 Annual Economic Report is the clearest institutional signal yet that AI infrastructure spending is now a systemic financial-stability variable -- not just a sector bet. For AI and data practitioners, the key read: the five largest hyperscalers are on track to spend more than $1 trillion on AI capital expenditure across 2025-2026 (BIS), and the central bank for central banks warns that 'Disappointment in returns could trigger a sudden pullback in financing and turn the capex boom into a protracted investment bust, with potential knock-on effects on financial conditions' (BIS via CryptoSlate/CNBC). The BIS also flags circular financing structures -- hyperscalers taking equity stakes in AI labs that then commit to buying chips and compute -- as an amplifier of downside risk. Bitwise's market note documents Bitcoin's tight correlation with US software and hyperscaler equities, framing crypto as a fast-reacting risk-off signal for the broader AI trade.