# Binance.US is filing for a CFTC prediction markets license and going straight at Kalshi and Gemini > Source: > Published: 2026-07-31 17:55:00+00:00 *Binance.US wants back into the US crypto fight, but prediction markets will not paper over its regulatory history. The CFTC docket is the reality check.* Binance.US can talk about prediction markets all it wants. Until a Designated Contract Market application appears on the CFTC's public filings page, the story is not that the exchange has entered the race. The story is that it wants to, and that is a very different thing for a company still carrying the Binance name. That distinction matters. Rare Evo 2026 did take place at the ARIA Resort & Casino in Las Vegas from July 28 to July 31, and event materials listed Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory among the speakers. But a live search did not turn up a verifiable record that Gregory announced an August DCM filing on stage with Eleanor Terrett, and the CFTC's DCM page, checked on July 31, does not list Binance.US or BAM Trading Services as a pending applicant. Don't blur that line. Readers can handle uncertainty. They don't need certainty invented for them. What is real is the strategic direction. CoinDesk reported in April that Gregory, who became Binance.US CEO in March, wants to move the exchange beyond basic spot trading into retail derivatives and prediction markets. CoinDesk also reported in July that he is trying to rebuild toward the roughly 20% US crypto exchange share Binance.US once had, after a period he described as hibernation. That is a big ambition for a platform whose US presence was battered during the 2023 and 2024 regulatory mess. Binance.US has cut prices as part of that rebuild. The company said in April that it moved to 0% maker fees and 0.02% taker fees on spot trading. That helps with retail traders who can compare fees in seconds. It does not solve the harder problem, which is getting a federal derivatives regulator to sign off on a new market structure. ## The docket is crowded already A DCM license is the gate for a US exchange that wants to list federally regulated event contracts for retail customers. The CFTC says designated contract markets have to police trading, protect customers and enforce rules against fraud and manipulation - and demonstrate they can maintain the financial resources to do it. This is not a branding exercise. It is a regulated exchange application. The queue is already busy. CFTC industry filings show Juice Exchange, Water Street Labs, Optex Markets, Ludlow Exchange, ProphetX, and Xchange Alpha all received DCM designations in 2026. Pending names include Bullish Markets, Limitless Markets US, Six Markets, Smarkets, Sporttrade, 365Prediction and others. Binance.US would not be entering an empty field. It would be walking into a line that is getting longer by the month. Kalshi is the target everyone can see. In May, Kalshi said it raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, with Coatue leading the round and Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm and several others participating. Today, the Associated Press reported that New York sued Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal, unlicensed gambling business and seeking to stop its activity in the state. So the market is not simply hot. It is legally contested, expensive, and moving fast. Gemini has already done the work Binance.US would need to start. Gemini announced that its Titan affiliate received CFTC DCM designation in December 2025 and that its Olympus affiliate received a Derivatives Clearing Organization license in April 2026. Its first-quarter presentation said more than 20,000 predictions traders had traded contracts since the December launch. That is the kind of regulated stack Binance.US is pointing toward, not something it can copy with a press line. ## The Binance name still follows it Here is the problem. Binance.US is separately incorporated in the United States, but reputation does not respect corporate charts. The Justice Department said Binance Holdings pleaded guilty in November 2023 and agreed to pay $4.3 billion in penalties. The CFTC separately said Binance and Changpeng Zhao agreed to a resolution requiring $2.85 billion in payments tied to Commodity Exchange Act violations. Treasury said FinCEN's settlement imposed a five-year monitorship and required Binance's exit from the United States. That history is not ancient. Bloomberg reported in May that Binance said Treasury had sent a letter connected to the monitorship and that the company was cooperating. So any draft that treats the compliance overhang as nearly gone is getting ahead of the record. Frankly, the CFTC should scrutinize any Binance.US application hard. That does not mean it should reject it automatically. Regulators judge current controls and market surveillance, the strength of the rulebook, and whether management can actually run a compliant operation. Gregory's background in compliance, including prior roles at Gemini and CEX.io, is relevant. So are Binance.US's governance claims. But none of that erases what US agencies already put in writing about the global Binance business. The sharper version of this story is simpler than the original draft made it. Binance.US wants prediction markets because spot trading alone is a brutal business when fees keep shrinking and customers can leave with a few taps. Kalshi, Gemini, Polymarket's US push, Coinbase's Kalshi partnership and the new DCM approvals show why every exchange wants event contracts in its product drawer. But wanting the product is not the same as having the license. As of July 31, the public CFTC filings do not show Binance.US in the DCM queue. If that changes in August, the filing itself will tell you what Binance.US is really asking regulators to trust. **Also read:** [Hyperliquid's own team joins a $415 million HYPE unstaking wave that has the token on the ropes](https://startupfortune.com/hyperliquids-own-team-joins-a-415-million-hype-unstaking-wave-that-has-the-token-on-the-ropes/) • [A firmware bug in Coldcard hardware wallets drained $38 million in Bitcoin from 500 wallets in 25 minutes](https://startupfortune.com/a-firmware-bug-in-coldcard-hardware-wallets-drained-38-million-in-bitcoin-from-500-wallets-in-25-minutes/) • [Western Union slashes its 2026 profit forecast 28% as stablecoins start eating its lunch](https://startupfortune.com/western-union-slashes-its-2026-profit-forecast-28-as-stablecoins-start-eating-its-lunch/)