# Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents

> Source: <https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03015>
> Published: 2026-07-07 04:00:00+00:00

# Computer Science > Artificial Intelligence

[Submitted on 3 Jul 2026]

# Title:Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents

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Abstract:Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substantial gap between calibrated probability scores and the trading results. We propose Raven-Agent, to the best of our knowledge, the first autonomous trading agent for prediction markets. On a controlled replay over an archived decision set, our architecture achieves the only positive return and the only positive risk-adjusted return among all tested policies. We have released our code in[this https URL].

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