{"slug": "beyond-forecasting-the-belief-to-trade-layer-in-prediction-market-agents", "title": "Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents", "summary": "Researchers introduced Raven-Agent, the first autonomous trading agent for prediction markets, which achieved the only positive return and positive risk-adjusted return among tested policies in controlled replays over archived decision sets. The agent bridges the gap between calibrated probability forecasts and actual trading results by incorporating a belief-to-trade layer.", "body_md": "# Computer Science > Artificial Intelligence\n\n[Submitted on 3 Jul 2026]\n\n# Title:Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents\n\n[View PDF](/pdf/2607.03015)\n\n[HTML (experimental)](https://arxiv.org/html/2607.03015v1)\n\nAbstract:Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substantial gap between calibrated probability scores and the trading results. We propose Raven-Agent, to the best of our knowledge, the first autonomous trading agent for prediction markets. On a controlled replay over an archived decision set, our architecture achieves the only positive return and the only positive risk-adjusted return among all tested policies. We have released our code in[this https URL].\n\n### References & Citations\n\nLoading...\n\n# Bibliographic and Citation Tools\n\nBibliographic Explorer\n\n*(*[What is the Explorer?](https://info.arxiv.org/labs/showcase.html#arxiv-bibliographic-explorer))\nConnected Papers\n\n*(*[What is Connected Papers?](https://www.connectedpapers.com/about))\nLitmaps\n\n*(*[What is Litmaps?](https://www.litmaps.co/))\nscite Smart Citations\n\n*(*[What are Smart Citations?](https://www.scite.ai/))# Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article\n\nalphaXiv\n\n*(*[What is alphaXiv?](https://alphaxiv.org/))\nCatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers\n\n*(*[What is CatalyzeX?](https://www.catalyzex.com))\nDagsHub\n\n*(*[What is DagsHub?](https://dagshub.com/))\nGotit.pub\n\n*(*[What is GotitPub?](http://gotit.pub/faq))\nHugging Face\n\n*(*[What is Huggingface?](https://huggingface.co/huggingface))\nScienceCast\n\n*(*[What is ScienceCast?](https://sciencecast.org/welcome))# Demos\n\n# Recommenders and Search Tools\n\nInfluence Flower\n\n*(*[What are Influence Flowers?](https://influencemap.cmlab.dev/))\nCORE Recommender\n\n*(*[What is CORE?](https://core.ac.uk/services/recommender))# arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators\n\narXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.\n\nBoth individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.\n\nHave an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? [ Learn more about arXivLabs](https://info.arxiv.org/labs/index.html).", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/beyond-forecasting-the-belief-to-trade-layer-in-prediction-market-agents", "canonical_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03015", "published_at": "2026-07-07 04:00:00+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-07 04:04:03.006463+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-agents", "machine-learning", "ai-research"], "entities": ["Raven-Agent"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/beyond-forecasting-the-belief-to-trade-layer-in-prediction-market-agents", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/beyond-forecasting-the-belief-to-trade-layer-in-prediction-market-agents.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/beyond-forecasting-the-belief-to-trade-layer-in-prediction-market-agents.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/beyond-forecasting-the-belief-to-trade-layer-in-prediction-market-agents.jsonld"}}