# Bank of England expected to hold interest rates at 3.75% as inflation stays stubbornly above target > Source: > Published: 2026-06-18 00:31:43+00:00 # Bank of England expected to hold interest rates at 3.75% as inflation stays stubbornly above target The MPC's June meeting looks like a foregone conclusion, but the reasons behind the hold tell a more complicated story about energy prices, geopolitics, and a central bank stuck between competing pressures. The Bank of England is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate parked at 3.75% when the Monetary Policy Committee delivers its decision on June 18. Market consensus is firmly in the “no change” camp, and for once, the reasoning is pretty straightforward: inflation is cooling, but not fast enough to justify another cut, and definitely not hot enough to warrant a hike. UK CPI inflation sits at 2.8% as of May 2026. That’s down from the eye-watering levels of 2023 and 2024, but still meaningfully above the BoE’s 2% target. ## Why the hold makes sense (and why one MPC member disagrees) The April MPC vote was 8-1 in favor of holding rates steady. The lone dissenter was Huw Pill, who pushed for a 25 basis point hike. That split matters because it tells you something about the internal debate at Threadneedle Street. Governor Andrew Bailey and the majority of the committee appear content to wait for more data before making their next move. The logic is defensible: rates have already come down significantly from their peak levels between 2023 and 2025, and the lagged effects of previous cuts are still working through the economy. Pill’s dissent reflects a real concern. With inflation still running nearly a full percentage point above target, there’s a reasonable argument that the BoE cut too aggressively and may need to course-correct. ## The geopolitical factor nobody can model The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly tensions related to Iran, has kept energy and fuel costs elevated. For UK households, this translates into higher utility bills and more expensive petrol. For the MPC, it translates into a forecasting nightmare. Bailey and his colleagues are essentially trying to determine whether the energy price pressures are temporary disruptions or something more structural. If the Middle East situation escalates further, energy costs could reignite broader inflation just as the BoE thought it was winning the fight. ## What this means for investors and crypto markets For traditional market participants, the expected hold creates a brief window of predictability. Sterling has been relatively stable against major currencies, and a non-event from the MPC should keep it that way. Bond traders have already priced in the hold, so gilt yields are unlikely to move dramatically on the announcement itself. FactSet data shows market consensus strongly favoring the hold in June. If inflation continues its slow descent toward 2%, August or September could bring another cut. If energy prices spike again, the committee might find itself in the uncomfortable position of considering a hike for the first time in over a year. For crypto markets, the direct impact is minimal. Bitcoin and other digital assets have historically shown limited correlation with BoE rate decisions specifically. The broader macro environment matters, of course, but the BoE acting alone, particularly when it’s just maintaining the status quo, isn’t the kind of catalyst that moves digital asset prices. **Disclosure:** This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our [Editorial Policy](https://cryptobriefing.com/editorial-policy/).