{"slug": "asml-raises-2026-revenue-forecast-to-eur43-45-billion-on-surging-ai-chip-demand", "title": "ASML Raises 2026 Revenue Forecast to €43-45 Billion on Surging AI Chip Demand", "summary": "ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast to €43-45 billion, up from €36-40 billion, citing surging demand for AI chips. The Dutch lithography giant reported Q2 net sales of €9.3 billion and net income of €2.9 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, as chipmakers accelerate capacity expansions for AI workloads.", "body_md": "# ASML Raises 2026 Revenue Forecast to €43-45 Billion on Surging AI Chip Demand\n\n- ASML raised its 2026 full-year revenue guidance to €43-45 billion, up from €36-40 billion set after Q1, marking the second increase this year\n[[1]](https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q2-2026-financial-results) - Q2 net sales hit €9.3 billion with 54% gross margin and €2.9 billion net income, beating Wall Street estimates on EPS of $8.69 vs. $7.98 expected\n[[2]](https://financialmodelingprep.com) - The company plans 30% capacity increases for both low-NA EUV (~65 units) and DUV immersion (~130 units) systems in 2027, with another 30% under investigation for 2028\n[[1]](https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q2-2026-financial-results) - Memory revenue is projected to surge 75% in 2026 while advanced logic revenue grows ~25%, driven by AI workloads and 2nm production ramps\n[[3]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/asml-q2-earnings-call-highlights-060200497.html) - ASML shares rose ~2.9% to $1,775.64 on the results, extending a 66% year-to-date gain\n[[4]](https://financialmodelingprep.com)\n\nASML, the world's sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, raised its 2026 revenue forecast to €43-45 billion on Wednesday, up sharply from the €36-40 billion range it guided after first-quarter results in April. The increase — the second this year — reflects accelerating capital expenditure by chipmakers racing to expand AI-related production capacity [1].\n\nThe Veldhoven, Netherlands-based company reported second-quarter net sales of €9.3 billion and net income of €2.9 billion, with gross margins of 54% topping its own guidance. Earnings per share of $8.69 beat the $7.98 consensus estimate, the fourth consecutive quarter of beats [2]. ASML shares rose approximately 2.9% in trading to $1,775.64, bringing the stock's year-to-date gain to roughly 66% and its market capitalization to $684 billion\n\n.\n\n[[4]](https://financialmodelingprep.com)The guidance progression tells a story of rapidly strengthening demand. ASML entered 2026 with an original forecast of €35-40 billion. After Q1, management nudged the floor up to €36 billion. Now, three months later, the entire range has jumped to €43-45 billion — a midpoint increase of more than 15% from the initial outlook [5].\n\n## What Happened\n\nASML sold 86 new lithography systems in Q2, up from 67 in the first quarter. Its installed base management business — upgrades, services, and software — generated €2.8 billion in revenue, roughly €300 million above expectations, driven by customers seeking productivity improvements through software-led upgrades that require minimal machine downtime [1].\n\nFor the third quarter, ASML guided net sales of €11.0-12.0 billion with gross margins of 55-57%, implying a significant sequential ramp. Full-year gross margin guidance was also raised to 54-56%, up from the previous 51-53% range, reflecting a favorable product mix and better fixed-cost coverage [1].\n\nCEO Christophe Fouquet said order visibility now extends well into 2028, with ASML having substantially secured all required orders for 2027. The company repurchased €1.1 billion in shares during the quarter and declared an interim dividend of €1.88 per share [1].\n\n## AI Demand Driving Capacity Buildout\n\nThe core driver behind ASML's upgraded outlook is the semiconductor industry's AI infrastructure buildout. Advanced logic revenue at 5nm, 4nm, and 3nm nodes is expected to grow approximately 25% in 2026, while memory revenue — fueled by high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators — is projected to surge 75% [3].\n\nASML's EUV business is targeting 45% revenue growth with roughly 65 low-NA units planned for 2026. The company's high-NA EUV technology reached a milestone at Intel, where it entered production use — described by Fouquet as proof of the tool's maturity [3].\n\nCustomers are ramping 2nm production 'as aggressively as possible,' according to management, and ASML is responding with unprecedented capacity expansion. The company plans to increase both low-NA EUV and DUV immersion system capacity by 30% for 2027, and is investigating another 30% increase for 2028 [1].\n\n## Why It Matters\n\nASML occupies a unique position in the semiconductor supply chain as the monopoly supplier of EUV lithography equipment, making its order book a leading indicator of global chip investment. The magnitude of the guidance raise — roughly €6 billion at the midpoint in a single quarter — signals that the AI-driven capex supercycle is not only intact but accelerating.\n\nThe results arrive amid a broader debate over whether AI infrastructure spending has peaked. ASML's numbers suggest it has not. With order visibility extending to 2028 and capacity expansion plans stretching across multiple years, the company's customers — including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel — are making multi-year commitments to expand production.\n\nChina remains approximately 20% of ASML's total sales, with growth driven primarily by domestic-focused logic demand. That percentage has held steady despite the higher absolute revenue base, suggesting the non-China business is scaling proportionally [3].\n\n## What's Next\n\nASML's Q3 guidance of €11-12 billion implies the second half of 2026 will significantly outpace the first half, consistent with the raised full-year target. The midpoint of the new annual range (€44 billion) requires roughly €26 billion in H2 revenue, compared to approximately €18 billion in H1.\n\nThe capacity expansion plans — a 30% increase across both EUV and DUV platforms for 2027, with another potential 30% for 2028 — represent a significant capital commitment by ASML itself, underscoring management's confidence in the durability of demand.\n\nASML stock has more than doubled from its 52-week low of $683.48 but remains roughly 11% below its 52-week high of $1,999.96 [4]. The company's next major update will come with Q3 results, expected in October.\n\n## Companies mentioned\n\n## Further sources\n\nThe stories that matter, in one email. Free — unsubscribe anytime.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/asml-raises-2026-revenue-forecast-to-eur43-45-billion-on-surging-ai-chip-demand", "canonical_source": "https://mlq.ai/news/asml-raises-2026-revenue-forecast-to-43-45-billion-on-surging-ai-chip-demand/", "published_at": "2026-07-15 10:17:52.831858+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-15 10:17:54.935872+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-chips", "ai-infrastructure", "ai-products"], "entities": ["ASML", "Intel", "Christophe Fouquet"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/asml-raises-2026-revenue-forecast-to-eur43-45-billion-on-surging-ai-chip-demand", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/asml-raises-2026-revenue-forecast-to-eur43-45-billion-on-surging-ai-chip-demand.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/asml-raises-2026-revenue-forecast-to-eur43-45-billion-on-surging-ai-chip-demand.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/asml-raises-2026-revenue-forecast-to-eur43-45-billion-on-surging-ai-chip-demand.jsonld"}}