TL;DR
Apple investors are losing patience with the company’s AI strategy after a disappointing WWDC. The stock trades at a premium that assumes an upgrade cycle that has been repeatedly delayed, and the new Siri launches as a beta built on Google’s technology.
Apple investors are losing patience with the company’s AI strategy. The stock is coming off its worst week since February after the annual Worldwide Developers Conference failed to convince Wall Street that a long-promised upgrade cycle is any closer to arriving.
“There’s a bit of fatigue with Apple and AI,” Tim Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard, a Univest Wealth Division, told Bloomberg. “It’s hard to extend them the same benefit of the doubt we used to since there have been so many delays.”
The WWDC letdown
Apple’s overhauled Siri AI assistant will launch this autumn, but only as a beta. The company rebuilt Siri on a custom Google Gemini model running on Nvidia Blackwell GPUs, making it heavily dependent on its largest competitor’s infrastructure.
The new AI features will not initially be available in the European Union or China, two of Apple’s most important markets. It is the second time Apple Intelligence has been delayed in Europe, this time with no timeline for resolution, after the company and EU regulators reached an impasse over Digital Markets Act requirements.
Analysts largely shrugged. According to Bloomberg, not a single analyst adjusted revenue estimates for 2027 or 2028 after the conference, a sign that the presentations added nothing the market had not already priced in.
Priced for execution it has not delivered
Apple trades at more than 33 times estimated earnings over the next 12 months, well above its 10-year average of 23. It is the second most expensive stock among the Magnificent Seven, trailing only Tesla.
That premium assumes an AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle that has been promised since 2024 and repeatedly delayed. The stock rallied 15% in May on pre-WWDC optimism, its best month since July 2022, but gave back a chunk of those gains in the days that followed.
Revenue growth is expected to hit roughly 15% in fiscal 2026, which ends in September, up from 6.4% in fiscal 2025. Analysts see that pace slowing to 8.6% in fiscal 2027 and decelerating further after that, which makes the current valuation hard to justify without a clear catalyst.
The bull case, and its limits
The counterargument is straightforward: Apple has an enormous cash pile, a pristine balance sheet, steady buybacks, and an installed base of more than a billion devices. It is also building a third-party AI extensions framework for Siri that could eventually turn the iPhone into a distribution platform for Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini.
Shares got a lift on Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that camera-equipped AirPods, a next-generation foldable phone, and a 20th-anniversary iPhone are all in development for 2027. But the report noted that timing “remains fluid and could change,” which at this point could double as a motto for Apple’s entire AI strategy.
“It wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t super encouraging either,” Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management, told Bloomberg. “When it comes to Apple and AI, I feel like Charlie Brown with the football.”
Needham analyst Laura Martin was more pointed. Apple “did nothing to suggest that it can up-charge for its AI tools and capabilities, or save money from using AI,” she wrote, adding that it looks “overly dependent” on Alphabet, its biggest competitor in the smartphone business.