Animal Futures Forecasting Tournament

Metaculus, The Unjournal, and Sentient Futures have launched the Animal Futures Tournament, a forecasting competition with 16 questions on animal welfare topics including corporate commitments, alternative protein regulation, and AI impacts. The tournament aims to improve strategic decision-making in the animal advocacy movement and offers a $3,400 prize pool.

Aditya.B is leading this effort, and drafted most of the text below. We've just launched the Animal Futures Tournament https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/33016/ on Metaculus, a partnership with Metaculus https://www.lesswrong.com/w/metaculus , The Unjournal https://unjournal.org and Sentient Futures https://www.sentientfutures.ai/ . The ToC is standard and straightforward: the animal movement regularly makes strategic decisions over which organisations to fund, which campaigns to push, and which emerging issues to prioritise. These decisions can be higher value with a well-calibrated, public forecast to draw on particularly in the absence of substantial research and evidence . Questions were crowdsourced from people in strategic positions across the advocacy community, with one filter: could a forecast on this actually change a key decision? The 16 questions more coming cover corporate welfare commitments, alternative protein regulation, and emerging frontiers like octopus farming and how animal welfare might or might not show up in frontier AI systems. A $3,400 prize pool is on offer.