AI model release forecasts from prediction markets

Prediction markets on Polymarket forecast a median release date for Anthropic's next Claude Opus model by Dec 31, 2026, with a 99% probability by that date. Google's next Gemini Pro model has a median release by Aug 31, 2026, reaching 86% probability, while OpenAI's GPT-6 shows a median release by Dec 31, 2026, with 88% probability. The forecasts, generated July 22, 2026, from daily Polymarket price history, indicate low near-term probabilities for several models, including only 1.2% for Claude Opus by July 31, 2026.

Next Claude Opus median release The combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: By-deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232 · Exact-date market https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730 release forecast combined by/on markets Generated 2026-07-22 08:45 UTC from daily Polymarket price history and live quotes. Circle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date | Model or change | Provider | Date signal | |---|---|---| | Claude Mythos 5 access restored | Anthropic | Not available on this date | | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? | Anthropic | Not available on this date | | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? | Anthropic | Not available on this date | | median release The combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: By-deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232 · Exact-date market https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730 release forecast combined by/on markets Only 1.2% probability by Jul 31, 2026 Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred. Markets: Deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110 consumer change forecast multi-deadline Only 40% probability by Jul 31, 2026 Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred. Markets: By-deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by release forecast Only 0.9% probability by Jul 31, 2026 Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred. Markets: By-deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026 release forecast median release The combined distribution reaches 86% by Aug 31, 2026. Markets: By-deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt · Exact-date market https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260626213101460 release forecast combined by/on markets median release The combined distribution reaches 80% by Sep 30, 2026. Markets: By-deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/next-mythos-class-model-released-by release forecast median release The combined distribution reaches 88% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: By-deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by release forecast median release The combined distribution reaches 95% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: By-deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260701203831153 release forecast median release The combined distribution reaches 53% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: By-deadline market https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-haiku-released-byptptpt-20260701205353326 release forecast