# AI model release forecasts from prediction markets > Source: > Published: 2026-07-22 08:57:23+00:00 ## Next Claude Opus median release The combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232) · [Exact-date market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730) release forecast (combined by/on markets) Generated 2026-07-22 08:45 UTC from daily Polymarket price history and live quotes. Circle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date | Model or change | Provider | Date signal | |---|---|---| | Claude Mythos 5 access restored | Anthropic | Not available on this date | | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? | Anthropic | Not available on this date | | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? | Anthropic | Not available on this date | | median release The combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232) · [Exact-date market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730) release forecast (combined by/on markets) Only 1.2% probability by Jul 31, 2026 Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred. Markets: [Deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110) consumer change forecast (multi-deadline) Only 40% probability by Jul 31, 2026 Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred. Markets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by) release forecast Only 0.9% probability by Jul 31, 2026 Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred. Markets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026) release forecast median release The combined distribution reaches 86% by Aug 31, 2026. Markets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt) · [Exact-date market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260626213101460) release forecast (combined by/on markets) median release The combined distribution reaches 80% by Sep 30, 2026. Markets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-mythos-class-model-released-by) release forecast median release The combined distribution reaches 88% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by) release forecast median release The combined distribution reaches 95% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260701203831153) release forecast median release The combined distribution reaches 53% by Dec 31, 2026. Markets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-haiku-released-byptptpt-20260701205353326) release forecast