AI capex is the main event for Wall Street ahead of Meta's high-stakes Q2 earnings report

Meta Platforms heads into a high-stakes Q2 earnings report on Wednesday with investors increasingly skittish about AI capex, after Alphabet and Tesla were punished for spending figures that outpaced Wall Street estimates. Bank of America maintains a Buy rating and $835 price target, forecasting a Q2 beat and seeing potential for Meta to raise its FY26 capex guidance to $135-$150 billion. Goldman Sachs also expects Meta to continue ramping up AI capex, projecting $534 billion in spending from 2026 to 2028, while Deutsche Bank rates the stock a Buy with an $800 target, citing strong advertising growth and a promising AI monetization path.

AI capex is the main event for Wall Street ahead of Meta's high-stakes Q2 earnings report Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com Meta's Q2 earnings report will deliver a major update for the market's AI narrative, as investors turn cautious on lofty capex spending outlooks. - Meta Platforms is headed for a high-stakes Q2 earnings report on Wednesday. - Investors have become increasingly skittish about AI capex. - Analysts are generally bullish ahead of Meta's report, but investors could balk at more big AI spending plans. Meta Platforms https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock is heading into an earnings report with strong implications for the market's AI narrative. The social media giant, which will report its latest results after the closing bell on Wednesday, is among the AI "hyperscalers" spending hundreds of billions on the technology, and such lofty spending isn't being greeted with great enthusiasm by investors lately. Last week delivered a preview of what could await Meta if it surprises investors with an outlook for even higher capex than expected. Both Alphabet and Tesla were punished https://businessinsider.com/tesla-alphabet-stock-price-q2-earnings-capex-ai-spending-tsla-2026-7 after they reported spending figures for the full year that outpaced Wall Street's estimates, with the stocks selling off after earnings. Wall Street's view of AI capex has shifted dramatically https://www.businessinsider.com/hyperscalers-cant-win-with-investors-ai-spending-capex-alphabet-earnings-2026-7 since last year. In 2025, companies couldn't spend enough on the technology, but the winds have shifted and investors are antsy to see a return on investment. With Meta stock down about 10% in 2026, investors are looking for a narrative-shifting report that could reinvigorate excitement around the social media company. Here is what top Wall Street firms are watching as Meta heads into its Q2 earnings report. Bank of America BofA analysts maintain a Buy rating a bullish $ 835 price target on Meta stock, a 40% jump from Tuesday's price. The bank is forecasting an overall Q2 beat, with analyst Justin Post citing its appealing valuation and significant AI benefits as the primary reasons why his team remains constructive, as well as healthy advertising growth. While they expect Meta to keep raising AI spending figures, Post said high capex doesn't negatively impact his bullish thesis on the stock. "We do not expect AI infrastructure investment to slow near term given industry-wide compute /glossary/compute capacity constraints and see potential for Meta to raise its FY26 capex guidance to $135-$150bn from $125-$145bn ," he wrote. "We recently increased our FY26 capex estimate to $145bn and continue to see upside potential to Street estimates at $136bn." Goldman Sachs Goldman also expects Meta to continue ramping up AI capex, but it's not worried. According to analyst Eric Sheridan, Meta's spending will reach $534 billion from 2026 to 2028 as it continues to monetize its AI compute buildout. The bank has a Buy rating on the stock and a bullish $815 price target, a 37% jump from current levels. "We continue to see sustained operating momentum in terms of our advertising checks across Q2, which bodes well for its forward growth trajectory," he wrote. "We continue to see the application of additional compute to the company's core Family of Apps products as generally underappreciated by investors." Deutsche Bank Deutsche analyst Benjamin Black recently wrote that Meta should be doing more to scale it AI ambitions, rating the stock as a Buy and setting an $800 price target. Black did not give a specific capex forecast, though he wrote that spending will likely remain elevated. But similar to Goldman, he highlighted strong advertising growth and a promising AI monetization path as reasons to remain bullish on Meta. "In our view, Meta's shares' modest discount to the broader market does not adequately reflect the durability of the advertising business or the growing monetization optionality across AI, subscriptions, business agents, and cloud infrastructure," he wrote. RBC Capital Markets RBC sees Meta as the tech stock with the biggest opportunity for investor sentiment to improve. Analyst Brad Erickson maintains an Outperform rating and a $810 price target. Erickson added that if management increases 2026 capex to the forecasted $215 billion, it would likely help position Meta as a competitive force in cloud infrastructure. "The degree to which management articulates a clear path to commercialization—and demonstrates early traction or proof points—will be critical in validating the enormous capex investments being made and could help address lingering concerns about return on invested capital in the AI era," he noted. Needham Needham is less bullish, maintaining a Hold rating and a more muted $606 price target, about 2% higher than current levels. Analyst Laura Martin stated that her team favors waiting to purchase Meta stock until the current capex cycle is over, citing concerns about its plans for growth. "We retain our HOLD, because we believe that META's strategy diffusion destroys economic value," she wrote. "We think META is asking for too much capital for too many projects, and since competition is intense, strategy dilution lowers the odds that it will succeed at any of them." It cited projects like its Ray-Ban glasses, the Metaverse, and Reality Labs as having uncertain futures in terms of profitability. Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-q2-earnings-report-preview-wall-street-analysts-ai-capex-2026-7 Get AI news in your inbox Daily digest of what matters in AI.