An independent reimplementation of the Anthropic Institute's 2026 model, exposing the parameters their own explorer holds fixed
The Anthropic Institute's scenario explorer lets you move the five parameters describing how far AI gets and how fast. This one adds the three it holds constant, which is where the interesting questions live: how easily the economy can add capital, how readily different kinds of work substitute, and how much AI use leaves the paid economy altogether.
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| quantity | this model | their published |
|---|---|---| This is an independent reimplementation, written from the equations printed in the paper. The authors publish no code, so nothing here is derived from theirs. The closed-form block reproduces their published output figures to within about 0.35 percentage points once the two components I do not model are accounted for. The labour-market block reproduces unemployment to within about 0.6 points, and does not match their implementation; its outputs are labelled accordingly.
Parts of the underlying model are formalised in Lean 4, a proof assistant, including the theorem that the model has exactly one solution and the arithmetic behind the measurement panel. Those checks apply to the mathematics, not to this JavaScript, which is an ordinary port and carries no such guarantee.
I do not model the innovation block, which moves the published results by under 0.61 points in any scenario, or the price rigidity and demand feedback the authors also exclude. Their caveats section is worth reading and is unusually candid.
Background and the findings this was built to make touchable: The number Anthropic's economists left as a word.