{"slug": "ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business", "title": "AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners", "summary": "U.S. small businesses currently using AI are significantly more likely than non-users to expect increased employment and revenue over the next twelve months, according to an analysis of the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) from the Federal Reserve small business data program. The finding holds after accounting for firm and owner characteristics and location, and revenue expectations are most optimistic among AI users that report facing operational challenges in utilizing technology. The analysis notes that economy-wide pay and headcount measures have moved little even as AI adoption spread rapidly, while narrower measures document declining hiring for early-career workers and in AI-exposed occupations.", "body_md": "There is little consensus on the effect of AI adoption on employment. Economy-wide measures of pay and headcount [have moved little](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/evaluating-impact-ai-labor-market-current-state-affairs) even as AI adoption has spread rapidly, yet narrower measures document declining hiring for workers at the [start of their careers](https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/) or in [AI-exposed occupations](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/ai-and-coder-employment-compiling-the-evidence.htm). In this post, we revisit this topic for U.S. small businesses. We use data from the 2025 [Small Business Credit Survey](https://www.fedsmallbusiness.org/) (SBCS) to examine the twelve-month-forward employment and revenue expectations of AI users. We find that firms currently using AI are significantly more likely than non-users to expect increased employment and revenues over the next year, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics and location. Revenue expectations are most optimistic for AI users that report facing operational challenges in utilizing technology.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business", "canonical_source": "https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business-owners/", "published_at": "2026-10-08 11:00:00+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-08 11:20:14.692362+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-research"], "entities": ["Small Business Credit Survey", "Federal Reserve", "Yale Budget Lab", "Stanford Digital Economy Lab"], "also_reported_by": [], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business.jsonld"}}