Against the Singularity Hypothesis (2024)
type: NewsArticle
description: A new philosophical paper argues that the singularity hypothesis—the claim that self-improving artificial agents will rapidly become vastly more intelligent than humans—rests on unsupported growth assumptions. The author contends that leading philosophical defenses of the hypothesis fail to overcome skepticism, drawing out implications for policy and AI research. The paper challenges a view endorsed by prominent philosophers and AI researchers that has shaped public and academic discourse on artificial intelligence.
date published: 2026-06-04 21:32:45+00:00
date modified: 2026-06-04 21:49:03.183541+00:00
language: en
is accessible for free: true
article body: ## Abstract The *singularity hypothesis* is a hypothesis about the future of artificial intelligence on which self-improving artificial agents will quickly become orders of magnitude more intelligent than the average human. Despite the ambitiousness of its claims, the singularity hypothesis has been defended at length by leading philosophers and artificial intelligence researchers. In this paper, I argue that the singularity hypothesis rests on undersupported growth assumptions. I show how leading philosophical defenses of the singularity hypothesis fail to overcome the case for skepticism. I conclude by drawing out philosophical and policy implications of this discussion. ### Similar content being viewed by others ## 1 Introduction The Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence recently convened a panel to discuss the long-term future of artificial intelligence. That panel lamented “a tendency \(\dots\) to dwell on *radical* long-term outcomes of AI research, while overlooking the broad spectrum of opportunities and challenges” raised by artificial intelligence (Horvitz & Selman, [2012](/article/10.1007/s11098-024-02143-5#ref-CR30), p. 302). Rather than focusing on extreme scenarios involving murderous androids or superhuman planners, we might concentrate on better-evidenced issues such as bias (Fazelpour & Danks, [2021](/article/10.1007/s11098-024-02143-5#ref-CR23)), transparency (Creel, [2020](/article/10.1007/s11098-024-02143-5#ref-CR18)) and labor market distortions (Korinek & Stiglitz, [2019](/article/10.1007/s11098-024-02143-5#ref-CR33)). One hypothesis in particular drew the panel’s ire. The *singularity hypothesis* begins with the supposition that artificial agents will gain the ability to improve their own intelligence. From there, it is claimed that the intelligence of artificial agents will grow at a rapidly accelerating rate, producing an *intelligence explosion* in which artificial agents quickly become orders of magnitude more intellig…
publisher: Web Pulse
keywords: artificial-intelligence, ai-safety, ai-policy, ai-research, ai-ethics
mentions: Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
mentions: Horvitz
mentions: Selman
mentions: Fazelpour
mentions: Danks
mentions: Creel
citation: CreativeWork