A U.S. Strategy to Secure Geopolitical Advantage on an Path to Superintelligence

RAND's Center for the Geopolitics of Artificial General Intelligence published an expert insights paper on September 15, 2026, recommending a "Freedom of Action" strategy for the United States to preserve geopolitical advantage and humanity's survival with agency through a possible transition to superintelligence. The authors argue that seven archetypal strategies dominate the debate and that current evidence cannot resolve five pivotal uncertainties, so committing prematurely to any single strategy — or deferring commitment too long — forecloses options. The paper was independently initiated within RAND Global and Emerging Risks using income from operations and gifts from RAND supporters.

A U.S. Strategy to Secure Geopolitical Advantage on an Uncertain Path to Superintelligence Maintaining Freedom of Action Expert InsightsPublished Sep 15, 2026 Frontier artificial intelligence AI continues to advance, and an increasing number of experts contend that the creation of superintelligence is possible. Although progress might slow or even halt, the transformative potential of superintelligence demands proactive strategy-making. The stakes are high, not only for geopolitics, but for humanity’s survival and agency. What, then, should U.S. strategy be? Should the United States pursue AI supremacy by monopolizing the frontier? Co-develop superintelligence with rivals? Deter its advance? Pause and freeze its development? And in a competitive environment, how will other powers and geopolitical rivals respond to the choices they face? In this paper, the authors argue that seven archetypal strategies dominate the debate, that current evidence cannot resolve five pivotal uncertainties about the most feasible and sensible strategy, and that committing prematurely to any one of them, or deferring commitment too long, forecloses options. They therefore recommend a Freedom of Action strategy to build and preserve the ability to secure geopolitical advantage and ensure humanity’s survival with agency through the transition to superintelligence. This effort was independently initiated https://www.rand.org/support-us/philanthropically-supported-research.html and conducted by the Center for the Geopolitics of Artificial General Intelligence https://www.rand.org/global-and-emerging-risks/centers/geopolitics-of-agi.html within RAND Global and Emerging Risks https://www.rand.org/global-and-emerging-risks.html using income from operations and gifts from RAND supporters. This publication is part of the RAND expert insights series. The expert insights series presents perspectives on timely policy issues. This document and trademark s contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions https://www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html . RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.