A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans

Independent analyst and former Andreessen Horowitz partner Benedict Evans argues that artificial intelligence is as transformative as the internet or mobile—but no more than that, placing the current moment in a "1997" phase of early excitement and deep uncertainty. In a new interview, Evans warns that the anti-AI backlash is growing and that the real question for workers is not what percentage of a job AI can do, but whether the task itself constitutes a full job. He also identifies distribution as the ultimate competitive advantage as software becomes easier to build, and notes a surprising boom in consulting and professional services among AI companies.

Benedict Evans is an independent analyst and former partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he spent years as their in-house “thinker” tracking the most important technology trends. For the past six years, he’s been publishing deeply researched presentations on where tech is heading, most recently focused on AI’s transformation of the economy. His work is read by founders, investors, and operators trying to make sense of a noisy field. His most controversial opinion: AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile—and only as big. Listen on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts In our in-depth conversation, we discuss: Why we’re in “1997” for AI—early, exciting, and deeply uncertain about what comes next Where value will actually accrue in the AI stack The anti-AI backlash, and where it may lead The surprising boom in consulting and professional services at AI companies Why distribution is becoming the ultimate moat as software gets easier to build Why the right question about your job isn’t “What percent can AI do?” but “Is this a task or a job?” Why things will probably be okay—and what you need to do to prepare Brought to you by: WorkOS —Make your app enterprise-ready, with SSO, SCIM, RBAC, and more Vanta —Automate compliance, manage risk, and accelerate trust with AI Where to find Benedict Evans: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans • Newsletter: https://www.ben-evans.com/newsletter https://www.ben-evans.com/newsletter • Website: https://www.ben-evans.com https://www.ben-evans.com Referenced: • Andreessen Horowitz: https://a16z.com https://a16z.com • AI Eats the World: https://youtu.be/niJpDnNtNp4 https://youtu.be/niJpDnNtNp4 • VisiCalc: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VisiCalc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VisiCalc • McKinsey & Company: https://www.mckinsey.com https://www.mckinsey.com • Bain & Company: https://www.bain.com https://www.bain.com • Accenture: https://www.accenture.com https://www.accenture.com • Jevons paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons paradox • Benedict’s post on LinkedIn about Excel: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/benedictevans younger-people-may-not-believe-this-but-activity-7303217994459938816-PNqu https://www.linkedin.com/posts/benedictevans younger-people-may-not-believe-this-but-activity-7303217994459938816-PNqu • The AI-native startup: 5 products, 7-figure revenue, 100% AI-written code | Dan Shipper co-founder/CEO of Every : https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-every-dan-shipper https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-every-dan-shipper • Dario Amodei on X: https://x.com/DarioAmodei https://x.com/DarioAmodei • Marc Andreessen: The real AI boom hasn’t even started yet: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/marc-andreessen-the-real-ai-boom https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/marc-andreessen-the-real-ai-boom • Frame.io: https://frame.io https://frame.io • Food Marketing Institute: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food Marketing Institute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food Marketing Institute • Llama: https://www.llama.com https://www.llama.com • Steven Sinofsky on X: https://x.com/stevesi https://x.com/stevesi • Drake meme: https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/343699919/Drake-Hotline-Bling-Transparent-Background https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/343699919/Drake-Hotline-Bling-Transparent-Background • Ex-Google CEO Gets Booed While Discussing AI in Commencement Speech | WSJ News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNH43a1EI7s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNH43a1EI7s • Jonathan Swift’s quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9838985-you-cannot-reason-a-person-out-of-a-position-he https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9838985-you-cannot-reason-a-person-out-of-a-position-he • George Carlin’s quote: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/george carlin 391403 https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/george carlin 391403 • Fujitsu: https://global.fujitsu https://global.fujitsu • O NET OnLine: https://www.onetonline.org https://www.onetonline.org • Pete Holmes’s website: https://peteholmes.com https://peteholmes.com • The Seventh Seal : https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0050976 https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0050976 • Ericsson R310s phone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericsson R310s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericsson R310s • i-mate phone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-mate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-mate • J-Phone: https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/j-phone-j-t06 https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/j-phone-j-t06 Recommended books: • Three Men in a Boat : https://www.amazon.com/Three-Men-Boat-Jerome-K/dp/1512099899 https://www.amazon.com/Three-Men-Boat-Jerome-K/dp/1512099899 • Nature’s Metropolis: Chicago and the Great West : https://www.amazon.com/Natures-Metropolis-Chicago-Great-West/dp/0393308731 https://www.amazon.com/Natures-Metropolis-Chicago-Great-West/dp/0393308731 • The Lord of the Rings : https://www.amazon.com/Lord-Rings-Boxed-Set/dp/0358439191 https://www.amazon.com/Lord-Rings-Boxed-Set/dp/0358439191 Production and marketing by https://penname.co/ https://penname.co/ . For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email email protected /cdn-cgi/l/email-protection 54243b30373527201438313a3a2d2635373c3d20273f2d7a373b39 . Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.