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A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans

Independent analyst and former Andreessen Horowitz partner Benedict Evans argues that artificial intelligence is as transformative as the internet or mobile—but no more than that, placing the current moment in a "1997" phase of early excitement and deep uncertainty. In a new interview, Evans warns that the anti-AI backlash is growing and that the real question for workers is not what percentage of a job AI can do, but whether the task itself constitutes a full job. He also identifies distribution as the ultimate competitive advantage as software becomes easier to build, and notes a surprising boom in consulting and professional services among AI companies.

read2 min publishedMay 31, 2026

Benedict Evans is an independent analyst and former partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he spent years as their in-house “thinker” tracking the most important technology trends. For the past six years, he’s been publishing deeply researched presentations on where tech is heading, most recently focused on AI’s transformation of the economy. His work is read by founders, investors, and operators trying to make sense of a noisy field. His most controversial opinion: AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile—and only as big.

Listen on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts

In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:

Why we’re in “1997” for AI—early, exciting, and deeply uncertain about what comes next

Where value will actually accrue in the AI stack

The anti-AI backlash, and where it may lead

The surprising boom in consulting and professional services at AI companies

Why distribution is becoming the ultimate moat as software gets easier to build

Why the right question about your job isn’t “What percent can AI do?” but “Is this a task or a job?”

Why things will probably be okay—and what you need to do to prepare

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Where to find Benedict Evans:

• LinkedIn: [https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans](https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans)

• Newsletter: [https://www.ben-evans.com/newsletter](https://www.ben-evans.com/newsletter)

• Website: [https://www.ben-evans.com](https://www.ben-evans.com)

Referenced:

• Andreessen Horowitz: [https://a16z.com](https://a16z.com)

• AI Eats the World: [https://youtu.be/niJpDnNtNp4](https://youtu.be/niJpDnNtNp4)

• VisiCalc: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VisiCalc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VisiCalc)

• McKinsey & Company: [https://www.mckinsey.com](https://www.mckinsey.com)

• Bain & Company: [https://www.bain.com](https://www.bain.com)

• Accenture: [https://www.accenture.com](https://www.accenture.com)

• Jevons paradox: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox)

• Benedict’s post on LinkedIn about Excel: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/benedictevans_younger-people-may-not-believe-this-but-activity-7303217994459938816-PNqu

• The AI-native startup: 5 products, 7-figure revenue, 100% AI-written code | Dan Shipper (co-founder/CEO of Every): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-every-dan-shipper

• Dario Amodei on X: [https://x.com/DarioAmodei](https://x.com/DarioAmodei)

• Marc Andreessen: The real AI boom hasn’t even started yet: [https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/marc-andreessen-the-real-ai-boom](https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/marc-andreessen-the-real-ai-boom)

• Frame.io: [https://frame.io](https://frame.io)

• Food Marketing Institute: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_Marketing_Institute

• Llama: [https://www.llama.com](https://www.llama.com)

• Steven Sinofsky on X: [https://x.com/stevesi](https://x.com/stevesi)

• Drake meme: [https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/343699919/Drake-Hotline-Bling-Transparent-Background](https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/343699919/Drake-Hotline-Bling-Transparent-Background)

• Ex-Google CEO Gets Booed While Discussing AI in Commencement Speech | WSJ News: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNH43a1EI7s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNH43a1EI7s)

• Jonathan Swift’s quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9838985-you-cannot-reason-a-person-out-of-a-position-he

• George Carlin’s quote: [https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/george_carlin_391403](https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/george_carlin_391403)

• Fujitsu: [https://global.fujitsu](https://global.fujitsu)

• O*NET OnLine: [https://www.onetonline.org](https://www.onetonline.org)

• Pete Holmes’s website: [https://peteholmes.com](https://peteholmes.com)

• *The Seventh Seal*: [https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0050976](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0050976)

• Ericsson R310s phone: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericsson_R310s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericsson_R310s)

• i-mate phone: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-mate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-mate)

• J-Phone: [https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/j-phone-j-t06](https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/j-phone-j-t06)

Recommended books:

Three Men in a Boat: https://www.amazon.com/Three-Men-Boat-Jerome-K/dp/1512099899Nature’s Metropolis: Chicago and the Great West: https://www.amazon.com/Natures-Metropolis-Chicago-Great-West/dp/0393308731

The Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.com/Lord-Rings-Boxed-Set/dp/0358439191 Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].

Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.

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