A Big Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth

Economist Benjamin Moll has organized a high-stakes bet with philosopher William MacAskill and others on whether U.S. real GDP per capita will grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033, with $60,000 staked on the fast-growth side and $240,000 on the no-fast-growth side, implying a 20% probability of explosive AI-driven growth. The bet was agreed on X on 15–16 August 2026, with Moll and Andrew Ho backing the no-fast-growth side and MacAskill, Samuel Albanie, and Tom Cohen backing the fast-growth side.

A Big Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth Wow The excellent Ben Moll https://benjaminmoll.com/ has put together a high-stakes bet https://benjaminmoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/growth bet.pdf on US economic growth. A bet on near-term explosive AI-driven growth: whether U.S. real GDP per capita will grow by at least 15% within a single year measured relative to prior peak by the end of 2033. Agreed on X, 15–16 August 2026. This document summarizes the agreed terms. 1. Parties and stakes Fast-growth side wins if the growth condition in Section 2 is met : ● William MacAskill https://www.williammacaskill.com/ — $10,000 ● Samuel Albanie https://samuelalbanie.com/ — $25,000 ● Tom Cohen https://x.com/tomcohen — $25,000 ● Total: $60,000 No-fast-growth side wins otherwise : ● Benjamin Moll http://benjaminmoll.com/ — $40,000 ● Andrew Ho https://andrewho.xyz/ — $200,000 ● Total: $240,000Odds: 4:1 — every $1 staked by the fast-growth side is matched by $4 from the no-fast-growth side. Implied probability of the fast-growth scenario: 20%. I’m known for quipping that a bet is a tax on bullshit but I don’t think either side is BSing. We have a genuine and important disagreement. I’d side with Moll, for what it is worth.