# A Big Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth > Source: > Published: 2026-08-28 11:18:37+00:00 # A Big Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth Wow! The excellent [Ben Moll](https://benjaminmoll.com/) has put together a [high-stakes bet](https://benjaminmoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/growth_bet.pdf) on US economic growth. A bet on near-term explosive AI-driven growth: whether U.S. real GDP per capita will grow by at least 15% within a single year (measured relative to prior peak) by the end of 2033. Agreed on X, 15–16 August 2026. This document summarizes the agreed terms. 1. Parties and stakes Fast-growth side (wins if the growth condition in Section 2 is met): ● William MacAskill https://www.williammacaskill.com/ — $10,000 ● Samuel Albanie https://samuelalbanie.com/ — $25,000 ● Tom Cohen https://x.com/tomcohen — $25,000 ● Total: $60,000 No-fast-growth side (wins otherwise): ● Benjamin Moll http://benjaminmoll.com/ — $40,000 ● Andrew Ho https://andrewho.xyz/ — $200,000 ● Total: $240,000Odds: 4:1 — every $1 staked by the fast-growth side is matched by $4 from the no-fast-growth side. Implied probability of the fast-growth scenario: 20%. I’m known for quipping that a bet is a tax on bullshit but I don’t think either side is BSing. We have a genuine and important disagreement. I’d side with Moll, for what it is worth.