{"slug": "a-big-bet-on-explosive-ai-driven-growth", "title": "A Big Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth", "summary": "Economist Benjamin Moll has organized a high-stakes bet with philosopher William MacAskill and others on whether U.S. real GDP per capita will grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033, with $60,000 staked on the fast-growth side and $240,000 on the no-fast-growth side, implying a 20% probability of explosive AI-driven growth. The bet was agreed on X on 15–16 August 2026, with Moll and Andrew Ho backing the no-fast-growth side and MacAskill, Samuel Albanie, and Tom Cohen backing the fast-growth side.", "body_md": "# A Big Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth\n\nWow! The excellent [Ben Moll](https://benjaminmoll.com/) has put together a [high-stakes bet](https://benjaminmoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/growth_bet.pdf) on US economic growth.\n\nA bet on near-term explosive AI-driven growth: whether U.S. real GDP per capita will grow by at least 15% within a single year (measured relative to prior peak) by the end of 2033. Agreed on X, 15–16 August 2026. This document summarizes the agreed terms.\n\n1. Parties and stakes\n\nFast-growth side (wins if the growth condition in Section 2 is met):\n\n● William MacAskill https://www.williammacaskill.com/ — $10,000\n\n● Samuel Albanie https://samuelalbanie.com/ — $25,000\n\n● Tom Cohen https://x.com/tomcohen — $25,000\n\n● Total: $60,000\n\nNo-fast-growth side (wins otherwise):\n\n● Benjamin Moll http://benjaminmoll.com/ — $40,000\n\n● Andrew Ho https://andrewho.xyz/ — $200,000\n\n● Total: $240,000Odds: 4:1 — every $1 staked by the fast-growth side is matched by $4 from the no-fast-growth\n\nside. Implied probability of the fast-growth scenario: 20%.\n\nI’m known for quipping that a bet is a tax on bullshit but I don’t think either side is BSing. We have a genuine and important disagreement. I’d side with Moll, for what it is worth.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/a-big-bet-on-explosive-ai-driven-growth", "canonical_source": "https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/a-big-bet-on-explosive-ai-driven-growth.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=a-big-bet-on-explosive-ai-driven-growth", "published_at": "2026-08-28 11:18:37+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-28 11:49:51.773531+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-policy"], "entities": ["Benjamin Moll", "William MacAskill", "Samuel Albanie", "Tom Cohen", "Andrew Ho"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/a-big-bet-on-explosive-ai-driven-growth", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/a-big-bet-on-explosive-ai-driven-growth.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/a-big-bet-on-explosive-ai-driven-growth.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/a-big-bet-on-explosive-ai-driven-growth.jsonld"}}