Proof of prediction date: This page was archived on the Wayback Machine on
July 24, 2026— 3 days before the IPO listing on July 27.
They All Said Something Different.
Then I had to actually decide what to do with my 1,000 shares before Monday morning.
How a Lottery Ticket Landed Me in China’s Biggest Tech IPO #
A quick backstory before we get to the AI showdown.
In China, new stock IPOs work like a lottery. Anyone can apply — the broker randomly selects winners to receive shares at the IPO price. I applied for CXMT, and somehow won 2 lots (1,000 shares) at ¥8.66 per share. Total cost: ¥8,660 (~$1,200 USD).
The stock was set to start trading Monday, July 27 — with no price limits for the first 5 days. It could open at ¥15. It could open at ¥60. Nobody really knew.
So I did what any ordinary person with too many AI subscriptions would do: I gave all 9 AI systems the exact same background data and the exact same 5 questions. Then I watched them disagree.
¥8,660My total cost
1,000Shares won
9AIs consulted
5Standardized questions
What Is CXMT (长鑫科技)? #
Why this IPO had everyone in China talking.
The quick version: CXMT makes DRAM memory chips — the kind inside your phone, laptop, and AI servers. They were losing money for three straight years (2022-2024, total losses over ¥30B). Then AI happened. Suddenly every data center needs massive amounts of memory, prices surged, and CXMT flipped to profitability — spectacularly.
Why people were nervous: DRAM is the most cyclical industry in tech. The classic pattern is: prices rise → everyone expands → supply glut → prices collapse → repeat. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all furiously building new capacity right now.
The critical number: Only 6.73% of shares were tradeable on Day 1. The other 93% are locked up for 12-36 months. Tiny float = extreme price swings.
The 5 Questions I Asked Every AI #
Each AI received identical background data — full IPO details, financials, historical comparisons. Then the same 5 questions. Required to answer in the same structured format.
Opening Price Prediction Predict the price range on Day 1. What’s your single most likely price? Confidence level? - Trading Strategy Specific advice for someone holding 1,000 shares at ¥8.66 cost basis. Exactly what to do. - 6-Month Price Forecast Where will the stock be in 6 months, and why? - 3-Year Long-Term Outlook Bull, neutral, or bear? Target price range. Core thesis. - “China Petrol Curse” Risk Score (1-10) China Petroleum (中石油) IPO’d in 2007 and has never returned to its opening-day price. A score of 10 means CXMT is almost certain to do the same.
Source: Eastmoney Choice Data — note CXMT at #3 with ¥666B raised (greenshoe)
9 AIs. Same Data. Very Different Answers. #
Overview comparison — scroll right on mobile.
| AI System | Q1: Best Price | Q2: Strategy | Q3: 6-Month | Q4: 3-Year | Q5: Curse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | |||||
| ¥30 ¥22 – ¥45 | Confidence: Medium | ||||
| SELL ALL Day 1 At open or when it hits ¥30 | |||||
| ¥18–25Hype fades, cycle fears | |||||
| Neutral¥15–28 | |||||
| 8/10 | |||||
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | |||||
| ¥24 ¥17 – ¥34 | Confidence: Low | ||||
| SELL IF ≥¥22 “Ask yourself: would you rebuy at open price?” | |||||
| ¥14–34Depends on DRAM cycle | |||||
| Neutral¥13–32 | |||||
| 7/10* | |||||
| ChatGPT GPT-5.5OpenAI | |||||
| ¥31 ¥24 – ¥40 | Confidence: Medium | ||||
| STAGED SELLS ¥20-30: hold; ¥30-40: sell 300; ¥40+: sell 500 | |||||
| ¥18–35Gradual revaluation | |||||
| Neutral-Bullish¥20–45 | |||||
| 5/10 | |||||
| GrokxAI | |||||
| ¥38 ¥25 – ¥55 | Confidence: Medium | ||||
| SELL 400-500 IF ≥¥35 Rest: stop-loss at ¥25, hold to Q3 earnings | |||||
| ¥18–42Wide range, high uncertainty | |||||
| Neutral¥15–35 | |||||
| 7/10 | |||||
| KimiMoonshot AI | |||||
| ¥28 ¥22 – ¥42 | Confidence: Low | ||||
| SELL 500 AT ¥28-35 + 300 if hits ¥40+; keep 200 as bottom position | |||||
| ¥15–30Supply pressure hits | |||||
| Neutral-Bearish¥10–28 | |||||
| 6/10 | |||||
| DeepSeekHigh-Flyer | |||||
| ¥42 ¥30 – ¥55 | Confidence: Medium | ||||
| SELL 500 IF OPENS >¥40 Rest: conditional sell or stop; escape in the mania | |||||
| ¥15–30Float premium collapses | |||||
| BEARISH¥8–18 (possible breakeven) | |||||
| 8/10 | |||||
| Doubao (豆包)ByteDance | |||||
| ¥26 ¥20 – ¥35 | Confidence: Medium | ||||
| SELL 700 WHEN ≥¥25 Rest: stop at ¥20 or sell by Day 5 | |||||
| ¥15–28Mean reversion to peer PE | |||||
| Neutral¥12–23 | |||||
| 4/10 | |||||
| Yuanbao (元宝)Tencent | |||||
| ¥35 ¥19 – ¥59 | Confidence: Low | ||||
| SELL 700 IN FIRST 30 MIN Remaining 300: trailing stop at 85% of day high | |||||
| ¥25–45Most optimistic 6-month view | |||||
| Neutral¥15–35 | |||||
| 6/10 | |||||
| Tongyi QianwenAlibaba | |||||
| ¥28 ¥22 – ¥42 | Confidence: Low | ||||
| SELL 500 AT ¥28-35 Identical to Kimi — see note below | |||||
| ¥15–30 | |||||
| Neutral-Bearish¥10–28 | |||||
| 6/10 |
*Claude Opus 4.8 gave a dual score: 7/10 risk for anyone buying on Day 1, but only 2/10 for a holder at the ¥8.66 IPO cost — arguing they face completely different risks. ⚠️ Tongyi Qianwen response was identical to Kimi’s — likely a copy-paste error in data collection.
What Each AI Actually Said #
The reasoning behind the numbers — in their own words (translated from Chinese).
¥30(Range: ¥22–45)
¥24(Range: ¥17–34, Confidence: Low)
¥31(Range: ¥24–40)
¥38(Range: ¥25–55 — widest range of all AIs)
¥28(Range: ¥22–42, Confidence: Low)
¥42(Range: ¥30–55 — most bullish short-term)
¥8–18 (BEARISH)
¥26(Range: ¥20–35 — most conservative range)
¥35(Range: ¥19–59 — widest overall range, Confidence: Low)
¥25–45(most bullish) / ¥15–35 (Neutral)
¥28(Range: ¥22–42)
The Surprising Consensus (and the Disagreements) #
Average across 8 valid responses (excluding Tongyi duplicate)
Most Aggressive Short-Term: DeepSeek Predicted ¥42 open — but also most bearish long-term (¥8-18 in 3 years)
Most Conservative Opening: Claude Opus 4.8 Only AI to say confidence is “Low” and explain exactly why (9x spread in institutional bids = no consensus exists)
Most Bullish Long-Term: ChatGPT GPT-5.5 Only AI with “neutral-bullish” 3-year view and ¥45 target — believes AI demand + domestic substitution is a durable tailwind
**Most Optimistic 6-Month: Yuanbao (Tencent)**¥25-45 range vs. most AIs at ¥15-30 — thinks AI demand keeps the stock elevated longer
Most Philosophical: Claude Opus 4.8 Reframed the whole question: “Would you rebuy at the open price?” If no — you’re already holding a position you never chose to take.
Least Worried About the Curse: Doubao Lowest score (4/10) — argues CXMT’s valuation at IPO isn’t bubble-level, unlike China Petrol in 2007
The one thing every single AI agreed on: Sell most (if not all) of the position on Day 1. Not one AI said “hold everything” or “this is a long-term buy at the open price.”
The reasoning was identical across all 9: with only 6.73% of shares trading freely, Day 1 price will be driven by emotion and scarcity — not by fundamentals. That window of irrationality is the only clear edge.
Where they diverged: how much to keep, and how worried to be about the 3-year horizon.
What 1,000 Shares Would Return at Each Price Point #
Based on ¥8,660 total cost (1,000 shares × ¥8.66 IPO price). Excludes brokerage fees.
The Results Are In #
Following this story? Come back Monday for the reveal — who called it closest, and whether I actually had the nerve to sell.
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Disclaimer: This is a personal experiment documenting my own decision-making process, not financial advice. All AI responses were generated based on publicly available information provided in a standardized prompt. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Past patterns in IPO performance do not guarantee future results. The ¥8,660 I paid for these shares is real money I was willing to lose.
📚 Related Reading
Following this experiment?
The Results Reveal on July 27
I’ll update this post after market open with the actual price — and crown the winning AI.