Moonshot, DeepSeek, Zhipu, etc., will cause huge trouble
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This is a follow-up post to the one I published on Saturday about Moonshot’s Kimi K3.
Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week. It’s an awesome model, on paper as good as Fable and GPT-5.6 Sol. And it’s open. And it’s Chinese.
I wrote a deep dive to answer three questions:
How good is Kimi K3?
How is Kimi K3 so good?
How does Kimi K3 being so good affect the American AI industry?
You can read it here. But many questions are left unanswered. What will happen next between China and America? What are the second-order consequences of China having caught up to America?
Note that it’s not just Kimi. It’s also DeepSeek. And Qwen. And GLM. China is genuinely catching up. And so the AI race has changed. And so the world has changed.
Here’s the outline for today’s post, where I give you 7 profound consequences of these events:
FRONTIER CAPABILITY BECOMES HARDER TO MONETIZEOPEN-SOURCE AI GAINS CREDIBILITY AMONG ENTERPRISESEXPORT CONTROLS LOOK LESS EFFECTIVE (NOT USELESS)THE TRILLION-DOLLAR AI BUILDOUT IS HARDER TO JUSTIFYNVIDIA CAN WIN WHILE AI LABS LOSEBUSINESS VS GEOPOLITICS: WHAT HELPS AMERICA HURTS AMERICATHE POINT MATTERS LESS THAN THE TRAJECTORY
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