$6 A Gallon Gas, A Huge Recession, Or AI Taking Your Job: Pick 2

The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $4.10, potentially making August 2026 the most expensive August on record, as the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to its lowest level since 1982 amid the Trump administration's conflict with Iran. Falling demand is keeping prices from rising further, but reduced consumer spending could drive the U.S. into a recession, while AI investment accounts for over a quarter of GDP growth and 8% of total GDP, raising concerns about job displacement.

Unless something changes dramatically in the last few days of the month, this will be the most expensive August ever https://www.wgmd.com/delaware-gas-prices-down-this-week-while-high-crude-oil-prices-push-up-national-average/ when it comes to gasoline. The national average for a gallon of regular is $4.10 and probably even a bit more by the time you’re reading this . While the prospect of gas being around $4 per gallon isn’t exactly thrilling, it could get a lot worse very quickly. Before Donald Trump launched his foolish war against Iran, more than 100 ships were traversing the Strait of Hormuz every day, toll-free. Now, it is more like five https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/17/business/oil-market-strait-of-hormuz-trump . Managing Partners are Navigating the AI Inflection Point. https://bit.ly/4yNTIYP New executive research from Ari Kaplan explores how law firm leaders are responding to changing client expectations, evolving economics, talent transformation, and AI governance. Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to its lowest level https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/08/17/us-oil-reserves-slump-to-lowest-level-since-1982/ since 1982 as America and some allies tap into oil reserves to try to stem the damage. This, obviously, cannot go on forever. Best case scenario, Trump declares victory, pulls the U.S. military away from Iran with no real deal in place, and Iranian authorities impose new tolls that are not too draconian. Even in that scenario, refilling reserves will take time, and the only thing that will keep oil prices from spiking anew is not ideal: lack of demand. Falling demand is already https://energynow.com/2026/04/iran-war-upends-ieas-oil-market-outlook-as-global-supply-and-demand-to-contract-in-2026/ mostly responsible for keeping gas prices from rising even higher than they are. Declining demand for oil, though, is a classic sign of economic weakness. Low demand means fewer people traveling and spending money. While so far cuts in oil consumption have come mostly from the Middle East itself as well as the Asia-Pacific region, Americans will have to use less gas too to prevent prices from rising to $6 a gallon or more given current geopolitical conditions. However, if Americans are using less gas, that means they are spending less money overall. Consumer spending is the main driver https://www.npr.org/2025/11/23/nx-s1-5615222/consumer-spending-is-the-u-s-economys-main-driver-heres-how-its-doing of the U.S. economy, accounting for about 70% of America’s gross domestic product. If consumers tighten their belts enough to keep gas prices down, that could drive us into a recession. From ‘Vendor’ To ‘Partner’: How LexisNexis Is Deepening Law Firm Relationships https://abovethelaw.com/2026/08/white-glove-service-in-ai-era/ The company is emphasizing ‘white glove service’ in the AI era. Here’s what the initiative is delivering for clients. Of course, a worker will not have much of a choice about spending if that worker’s job is displaced by artificial intelligence. Should you believe the bloviation of the AI company CEOs, many of us need to watch our jobs in the months and years ahead. Nobody really knows exactly how AI will affect the job market. More realistic estimates from sources other than the tech companies themselves indicate that very AI-exposed jobs https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn7nllr4vd6o will be most drastically impacted, while many others might see some changes yet largely retain their workforces. Still, other than replacing humans’ jobs, not very many means of revenue generation on the table have a realistic shot of allowing big tech companies to recoup the tremendous amounts of money sunk into AI over the past few years. Right now, AI investment accounts for over a quarter https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/u-economy-addicted-ai-spending-134029657.html of GDP growth, and a staggering 8% of total GDP — not much compared to consumer spending, yet a dangerously large chunk for a single industry, especially one that has never been profitable. If AI does not prove profitable, 8% dropping out the bottom of our GDP would immediately throw us into a recession. If AI does prove profitable, that would mean so many jobs being lost that consumer spending would plummet and throw us into a recession. With cheaper gas, Americans would have more money in their pockets, and perhaps consumer spending could power the economy a while longer. Under current global circumstances, though, cheaper gas is not coming from anywhere other than a weak economy. The economy will be significantly weakened if AI takes over a bunch of human jobs or if AI fails to become profitable and the massive sums being dumped into AI development and infrastructure dry up. So, we can have cheap gas on plummeting demand because we are in a recession and lost our jobs. Or we can lose our jobs to AI, keep the economy growing with continued AI investment from the resultantly enriched tech companies, and have to deal with high gas prices despite underemployment. Or perhaps AI is mostly a flop, so we get to keep our jobs, but a big hole opens up in GDP as AI spending evaporates, pushing us into a recession. None of these are good possibilities. But I guess you get what you vote for. Jonathan Wolf is a civil litigator and author of Your Debt-Free JD affiliate link . He has taught legal writing, written for a wide variety of publications, and made it both his business and his pleasure to be financially and scientifically literate. Any views he expresses are probably pure gold, but are nonetheless solely his own and should not be attributed to any organization with which he is affiliated. He wouldn’t want to share the credit anyway. He can be reached at email protected .