48% of Google Cloud revenue next year could come from two unprofitable companies

UBS analysis shows OpenAI and Anthropic could account for more than 48% of Google Cloud's revenue by 2027, up from a projected 27% in 2026, raising concerns about Alphabet's infrastructure bet. Google Cloud's Q4 2025 revenue hit $17.7 billion, with growth accelerating to 63% and 82% in subsequent quarters, while Alphabet raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $175–205 billion. Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has ever turned a profit, creating concentration risk for Google Cloud.

Via blog.google 48% of Google Cloud revenue next year could come from two unprofitable companies UBS analysis reveals that OpenAI and Anthropic may account for nearly half of Google Cloud's projected 2027 revenue, raising uncomfortable questions about Alphabet's massive infrastructure bet. Google Cloud has been one of Alphabet’s best growth stories in recent quarters. Revenue surged 48% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with subsequent quarters posting 63% and 82% growth. Dig one layer deeper, though, and the picture gets more complicated. According to UBS analyst estimates, OpenAI and Anthropic could account for more than 48% of Google Cloud’s revenue by 2027, up from a projected 27% in 2026. Neither company has ever turned a profit. The concentration problem Both OpenAI and Anthropic have raised enormous sums to train and deploy their large language models. That capital flows, in significant part, straight into cloud infrastructure fees. Google Cloud collects rent on the compute power these companies burn through at industrial scale. Ed Zitron, a prominent tech commentator, has pointed to this dynamic as evidence that much of the hyperscaler infrastructure buildout is effectively a pass-through mechanism. The billions Alphabet is pouring into data centers and chips may be less about serving a broad, diversified customer base and more about capturing spend from a narrow set of AI developers who themselves haven’t figured out how to make money. Alphabet’s capex appetite Alphabet has increased its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $175 billion to $205 billion. Google Cloud’s Q4 2025 revenue hit $17.7 billion. The subsequent acceleration to 63% and then 82% growth suggests the AI tailwind is real and intensifying. For Alphabet investors, the risk calculus has shifted. Revenue from Fortune 500 enterprises with multi-year contracts is fundamentally different from revenue that depends on whether Anthropic can raise its next funding round. The concentration risk also creates a negotiating dynamic that works against Google. When two customers represent nearly half of your business, those customers have enormous leverage on pricing. OpenAI and Anthropic know exactly how important they are to Google Cloud’s growth narrative, and they can use that knowledge to extract favorable terms. Watch for any disclosures about customer concentration in Alphabet’s earnings reports, and pay attention to whether OpenAI and Anthropic make meaningful progress toward profitability. If they do, Google Cloud’s position looks increasingly strong. If they don’t, Alphabet may find itself having spent hundreds of billions of dollars building infrastructure for customers who couldn’t afford to keep using it. Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy https://cryptobriefing.com/editorial-policy/ .