2026.20: Shifting Alliances in a Changing World

The Stratechery newsletter's February 2026 edition analyzes a major shift in AI computing, arguing that "agentic inference" — where AI operates without human involvement — will surpass current answer-based inference in market size and reshape hardware demands. The coverage also examines the recent Anthropic-xAI compute deal, highlighting how it demonstrates market efficiency while raising questions about Elon Musk's strategic direction for SpaceX's data center business. Additionally, the newsletter assesses the first U.S. presidential visit to Beijing in nine years, concluding that the summit produced underwhelming deliverables despite both nations' incentives to maintain stability.

Welcome back to This Week in Stratechery As a reminder, each week, every Friday, we’re sending out this overview of content in the Stratechery bundle; highlighted links are free for everyone. Additionally, you have complete control over what we send to you. If you don’t want to receive This Week in Stratechery emails there is no podcast , please uncheck the box in your delivery settings https://stratechery.passport.online/member/account/delivery . On that note, here were a few of our favorites this week. A New Kind of Computing . AI compute has been divided into two categories: training, and inference. However, in The Inference Shift https://stratechery.com/2026/the-inference-shift/ and on this week’s Sharp Tech https://sharptech.fm/member/episode/inference-in-the-agentic-future-x-ai-is-two-companies-in-one-q-a-on-elons-lawsuit-intel-apple , I make the case that there are two kinds of inference: the one we know today is “answer inference”, where humans are in the loop, and speed matters; the inference that will matter most in the future, at least in terms of market size, will be “agentic inference”, where humans aren’t involved at all. That will lead to very different trade-offs in architectures, and is good news for both China and space but maybe not Nvidia . — Ben Thompson All About Elon. A week on from the news that Anthropic has secured compute from xAI, Tuesday’s Daily Update examined the deal from both sides https://stratechery.com/2026/spacex-and-anthropic-xais-two-companies-elon-musk-and-spacexais-future/ . On one hand, Anthropic’s side of the deal is a reminder that markets actually work quite well, much to the relief of Claude users all over the world. On the other, the logic of the deal for xAI raises an interesting question about whether Musk will listen to what the market has told him, as well as the future of space data centers and who exactly SpaceX will be serving. Finally, if you can’t get enough Elon, on Sharp Text this week I wrote about his ongoing lawsuit with OpenAI, and why I find the case both boring and insulting https://sharptext.net/2026/elons-openai-lawsuit-is-boring-and-insulting-and-its-already-a-success/ , even as it’s clear that win or lose, Musk has already succeeded. — Andrew Sharp 360 Degrees of US-China Relations. With a U.S. President visiting Beijing for the first time in nine years, this week’s episode of Sharp China https://sharpchina.fm/member/episode/10-questions-and-modest-expectations-with-trump-in-china-to-meet-xi-jinping asked 10 Questions about the US-China summit and what might be achieved. Trump has already left Beijing as you read this, and as predicted on the podcast, the deliverables from his visit were underwhelming at least so far . Nevertheless, Wednesday’s conversation doubles as a great window into the state of the relationship generally, including why “upper hand” analysis tends to be overblown, why both sides are incentivized to play for time and stability, and the ways in which China’s posture has changed since the 90s and 2000s. Also: Jensen Huang standing on a runway in Alaska https://x.com/emilylgoodin/status/2054375216403611943?s=46 , and fun memories of a US-China fistfight in the Great Hall, back in 2017. — AS Stratechery Articles and Updates The Inference Shift https://stratechery.com/2026/the-inference-shift/ — Agentic inference is going to be different than the inference we use today, and it will change compute infrastructure because speed won’t matter when humans aren’t involved. SpaceX and Anthropic, xAI’s Two Companies, Elon Musk and SpaceXAI’s Future https://stratechery.com/2026/spacex-and-anthropic-xais-two-companies-elon-musk-and-spacexais-future/ — The Anthropic xAI deal is shocking but not surprising: Musk should double down on serving other companies. The Deployment Company, Back to the 70s, Apple and Intel https://stratechery.com/2026/the-deployment-company-back-to-the-70s-apple-and-intel/ — OpenAI is forming a new company to deploy AI, and the other labs aren’t far behind, reinforcing the thesis that AI’s impact will require top-down implementation. Then, Apple has economic reasons to work with Intel. An Interview with Ben Thompson at the MoffettNathanson Media, Internet & Communications Conference https://stratechery.com/2026/an-interview-with-ben-thompson-at-the-moffettnathanson-media-internet-communications-conference/ — An interview with me about the implications of the compute shortage on Aggregation Theory, consumer AI, and more. Sharp Text by Andrew Sharp Elon’s OpenAI Lawsuit Is Boring and Insulting, and It’s Already a Success https://sharptext.net/2026/elons-openai-lawsuit-is-boring-and-insulting-and-its-already-a-success/ — On the OpenAI trial and Elon Musk telling the world the same few Sam Altman stories that everyone knows and loves . Dithering with Ben Thompson and Daring Fireball’s John Gruber Asianometry with Jon Yu Sharp China with Andrew Sharp and Sinocism’s Bill Bishop Greatest of All Talk with Andrew Sharp and Ben Golliver The Wizards Win the NBA Lottery, Post-Lottery Reactions and Questions, A Wemby Ejection and a Wolves Resurrection https://goat.passport.online/member/episode/the-wizards-win-the-nba-lottery-post-lottery-reactions-and-questions-a-wemby-ejection-and-a-wolves-resurrection Cavs and Spurs Approach the Conference Finals, The Knicks Look Better Than Ever, Morey Out and What’s Next for LeBron https://goat.passport.online/member/episode/cavs-and-spurs-approach-the-conference-finals-the-knicks-look-better-than-ever-morey-out-and-whats-next-for-le-bron Sharp Tech with Andrew Sharp and Ben Thompson This week’s Stratechery video is on Amazon’s Durability https://stratechery.com/2026/amazons-durability/ .